EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Jul-18 19:00
- RES 4: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
- RES 1: 173.24 High Jul 15
- PRICE: 173.05 @ 16:41 BST Jul 18
- SUP 1: 171.84 Low Jul 16
- SUP 2: 170.42 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 169.32 Low Jul 3
- SUP 4: 167.69 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains firmly in place and fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions. A price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights a dominant uptrend and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Sights are on 173.43, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 170.42, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
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FED: Powel Emphasises Imprtance of Data in Coming Months for Decision Making
Jun-18 18:59
- Asked about officials' divergence on rate projections, Powell calls the SEP a "forecast in a very foggy time". Says FOMC participants have a "diversity of forecasts", and that even with the same data, "they can evaluate the risks differently", including the risks that inflation will be more persistent or that the labor market will weaken. But overall, "with uncertainty, as elevated as it is, no one holds these rate paths with a lot of conviction."
- Powell says "I think as the data come in, you should see those differences diminish". "We'll make smarter and better decisions if we just wait a couple of months, or however long it takes to get a sense of of really what is going to be, the pass through of inflation, and what's going to be the effects on spending and on hiring and all those things."
- Powell asked if he would stay on as Governor if not reappointed as Chair, he says "I'm not thinking about that."
USD: Greenback Stadily Reversing Higher During FOMC Press Conference
Jun-18 18:55
- Greenback steadily reversing higher through Chair Powell’s press conference as USDJPY inches back towards 145.00. As noted, the earlier session highs came within two pips of 145.46 resistance, which will be the target for a stronger rally here. Keeping an eye on cable as we currently test below Tuesday’s low at 134.15.
FED: Question Regarding the Necessary Confidence to Cut Rates Again
Jun-18 18:52
- On what would give the FOMC confidence to cut rates again, Powell says he knows "the time will come" and that "it could come quickly" or "it could not come quickly". The references to "the summer" and "coming months" makes it look like July isn't really on the table though:
- "It's very, very hard to say when that will happen. We know the time will come. It could come quickly. It could not come quickly. As long as the economy is solid, as long as we're seeing the kind of labor market that we have and reasonably decent growth, and inflation moving down, we feel like the right thing to do is to be where we are, where our policy stance is, and learn more. And in particular we feel like we're going to learn a great deal more over the summer on tariffs. We hadn't expected them to show up much by now and they haven't. And we will see the extent to which they do over coming months. That's going to inform our thinking."
