USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.18 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 148.19 @ 17:06 BST Jul 16
- SUP 1: 146.86 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 145.89 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 145.44 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains firmly in place - even as an acute spell of intraday volatility saw the price test Y147.00. This week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest rally has resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. Clearance of both levels strengthens the bull theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is 145.44, the 50-day EMA.
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EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24
- RES 1: 0.8547 High Jun 12
- PRICE: 0.8515 @ 17:21 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 0.8476/8447 Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared the 50-day EMA and the subsequent bullish follow through, highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 0.8447, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
FOREX: AUD and NZD Outperforming Amid Firmer Risk Sentiment
- The US dollar is underperforming on Monday, as more benign price action across the energy and equity markets is conveying a more stable risk backdrop. WTI and Brent crude futures are roughly 7% off the earlier highs, while the e-mini S&P 500 tracks around 1% in the green to start the week.
- As such, the likes of AUD and NZD have been key beneficiaries within G10, largely mirroring the price action for the major equity benchmarks. AUDUSD has been testing an important resistance point at 0.6550, the Nov 25 high, and a close at current levels would be he highest in 7 months, potentially signalling scope for a stronger recovery to the US election related highs at 0.6688.
- The EUR has also recovered, briefly rising to a session high of 1.1615. The rally has moderated as we approach the APAC crossover as spot deals close to 1.1580 at typing. Sights remain on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection, as the technical uptrend remains firmly in place. Relative underperformance for the safe havens has elevated EURJPY to the highest level since July last year. A positive close today for the cross would be 8 consecutive winning sessions, with sights now on a couple of daily highs at the 168.00 mark.
- USDJPY stands a touch higher Monday, but still managed to establish a 110 pip range on the session, keeping attention on the pair high as we approach tomorrow’s BOJ decision and press conference. 145.46 and 142.12 appear the key short-term parameters for the pair.
- Elsewhere on Tuesday, German ZEW figures are scheduled, before US retail sales and import price data are due.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $3.5B EOG 4Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 06/16 $4B Hungary $1.5B +5Y +145, $1B +10Y +175, $1.5B +30Y +195
- 06/16 $3.5B #EOG $500M 3Y +50, $1.25B 7Y +80, $1.25B +10Y +90, $500M 30Y +100
- 06/16 $2.25B #Enbridge $400M 3Y +67, $600M 5Y +87, $900M 10Y +112, $350M tap 04/05/54 +122
- 06/16 $700M Unisys 5.5NC2.5 10.5%a
- 06/16 $500M #Atmos Energy 10Y +80
- 06/16 $500M #Kimco Realty +10Y +92
- 06/16 $Benchmark EIB 7Y SOFR+53a
- 06/16 $Benchmark America Movil +7Y +110a
- 06/16 $Benchmark IBK 3Y SOFR+58a, 5Y +45a
- 06/16 $Benchmark Islamic Development Bank Sukuk 5Y SOFR+58a
