EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition

• Treasuries ratcheted lower Wednesday, buffeted by several rounds of selling and a reversal in overall sentiment that triggered selling in equities.
• Treasuries retreated through early overnight levels, coinciding with EU headlines that the EU is discussing "preferential treatment to give domestic firms bidding for public contracts worth about €2.5 trillion ($2.9 trillion) a year," Bbg. Note, however, 10Y Bund also declined and is rebounding.
• Treasuries moderated near session lows following comments by Fed Gov Miran (voter) at a Nomura Research Forum stated that US-China trade tensions tied to rare-earth curbs "pose significant downside risks". Ironically, this comes after after Treasury Sec Bessent suggested the possibility of a "longer tariff truce with China tied to rare-earth imports" helped risk sentiment earlier.
• Currently, Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract trades 113-09 (-4) vs. 113-06.5 low, yld tapped 4.0455% high; curves flatter/off lows: 2s10s -1.490 at 53.445 (51.608 low), 5s30s -1.561 at 100.734 (98.827 low). Initial technical support at 112-26 (20-day EMA) followed by the 50-day EMA at 112-16. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support.
• Cross asset: Bbg US$ index off lows, -3.35 at 1211.09 (1210.10 low), stocks off early highs: DJIA down down 72.67 points (-0.16%) at 46,200.11, S&P E-Minis up 12.5 points (0.19%) at 6,699.25, Nasdaq up 91.7 points (0.4%) at 22,611.45.
• Look ahead: Thursday's Retail Sales, PPI and Business Inventories suspended due to the Gov shutdown. On the other hand, Weekly Jobless Claims on a state level likely to be gradually parsed out.

From our "Shadow" employment report for September circulated earlier (PDF): While now of course delayed, the September nonfarm payrolls report had seen a primary dealer analyst median estimate of a 60k increase in nonfarm payrolls (range -20k to 105k). 

• These estimates came with the usual analyst forecast round ahead of the release, including before a weak ADP release.
• It’s possible that these will be revised down ahead of the actual release, whenever that may be.

• RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6556 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6519 @ 16:00 BST Oct 15
• SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12 

A bear theme in AUDUSD remains intact. However, yesterday’s recovery highlights a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle formation. If correct, it signals the end of the bear leg that started Sep 17. Note too that MA studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, and this highlights a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6556, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low.