COMMODITIES: Bullish Theme in Gold Intact, Despite Recent Pullback
WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $63.91, the 50-day EMA. Despite the latest pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.65 or +1.04% at $63
- Natural Gas down $0.01 or -0.51% at $2.753
- Gold spot up $9.3 or +0.28% at $3324.81
- Copper up $0.05 or +0.01% at $449.05
- Silver down $0.34 or -0.91% at $37.0265
- Platinum up $0.37 or +0.03% at $1315.4
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UK DATA: ONS update on TLFS: Still aim for headline transition in November 2026
- The ONS has confirmed that the first TLFS survey took place earlier this month with a wave 1 sample size of 90,000 (note that there are 5 waves that make up the labour market data with households in each wave surveyed quarterly 5 times - once in each wave).
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- The timings for the transition to TLFS haven't been updated since the last update in April (which is a positive after many times being pushed back):
- "The timing of transition to the TLFS remains an evidence-led decision, with a readiness assessment conducted in collaboration with our main users scheduled for July 2026."
- "We aim to transition to our published headline labour market statistics in November 2026, although this may extend into 2027 if our (or users’) assessment of quality requires more data to be collected and assessed."
- The full ONS release is available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/labourmarkettransformationupdateonprogressandplansjuly2025
