MNI: China Buying Time For 'Competitive Coexistence'- Advisors

China calculates that stabilising relations with the U.S. will buy it time to consolidate its own economic influence for a medium-to-longer-term future of "competitive coexistence" in which the two superpowers avoid direct conflict while operating partially decoupled trading networks, Chinese policy advisors and experts told MNI.

A possible summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing in April could improve relations sufficiently to minimise any flare up in tensions in the lead-up to the U.S. mid-term elections and perhaps beyond, said Huaqiao University vice president Lin Hongyu. Characterising the current phase of Sino-U.S. relations as one of "stability with underlying concerns,” Lin pointed to the current U.S. administration’s active approach to geopolitical and security issues, which could strain relations as soon as the second half of this year. (See MNI: China, US Talk Tariffs Before Possible Summit-Advisors)

A policy advisor agreed, saying that disputes would be more likely should the Americans be emboldened by an improving economy in H2. However, both sides need a breathing space after last year’s trade war, said the advisor, who asked for anonymity, pointing to the U.S.’s continuing reliance on Chinese rare earths and adding that China is more likely to find itself in conflict with the European Union in the near term, as Brussels introduces its carbon tax and pursues anti-subsidy actions against Beijing. 

Wang Peng, research fellow at the Institute of State Governance at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, said that the wisest path for the two superpowers would be to ensure that conflicts do not escalate despite enduring areas of fundamental disagreement. 

At the same time, while China is becoming less reliant on the U.S. for high-tech and other products, it will be unable to completely decouple from its deep economic ties with Washington during the remaining three years of Trump’s term, even as the U.S. president’s confrontational and transactional style undermines U.S. global standing in the longer run, Wang said. (See MNI: Trump-Xi Meet Likely, But Any Deal Modest-China Advisors)

G2 CONCEPT 

Even though the Chinese foreign ministry has played down a reference by Trump before his meeting with Xi last October to a new “G2” made up of the two superpowers, one Chinese observer said that such a dynamic could form the basis for a more stable and less conflictive order than the alternative  -- a new Cold War. 

Wang Dong, professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, proposed in a 2021 Foreign Affairs article a "G2 of Responsible Stakeholders (G2RS)" , an arrangement which he says could become the core of the global order in the next five to 10 years, allowing China and the U.S to work together to ensure conflict is avoided in the maritime, nuclear, cyber, and space domains, as other nations seek ways to trade with both the big powers. 

The coming period represents a strategic opportunity for China, said Wang, who added that Trump’s MAGA movement could well continue to reshape the U.S. political landscape for the next one or two election cycles.

The recent U.S. National Security Strategy report, which downplayed China’s position as an "economic competitor" from the previous "systemic challenge" and "geopolitical rival,” was a positive development for Beijing, said Wang. He also pointed to the recent speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Davos as evidence of a growing consensus within the Western world that the U.S.-led "rules-based international order" has ended. 

However, Zhou Xiaoming, former deputy permanent representative of China’s Mission to the UN Office in Geneva, cautioned against excessive optimism regarding U.S.-China relations, noting the USD900 billion U.S. military budget billion cannot solely be intended to police the Western Hemisphere. 

Bilateral trade conflicts could further worsen as China’s economy continues to grow, and the overall U.S. goal of containing China has not changed, said Zhou, noting that China's leadership is clear-eyed about these challenges.