MNI: China, US Talk Tariffs Before Possible Summit-Advisors

Chinese and U.S. negotiating teams are expected to meet soon to discuss further tariff reductions on Chinese goods, as well as purchases of U.S products and the opening up of Chinese markets, in preparation for a possible presidential summit in April, policy advisors and experts told MNI.

Given the recent absence of major direct conflicts over trade or diplomacy between the two sides, despite a turbulent few months in geopolitics, the probability that U.S President Donald Trump will visit China in April remains high, a government advisor told MNI, noting that China hopes that a summit could prepare the ground for a stable relationship with the U.S. during 2026 and perhaps even for longer.

China may ask the U.S. to remove the remaining 10% “fentanyl tariff,” while for its part it could commit to further purchases of U.S soybeans and energy products and to expand access to its markets, the advisor said. 

Following U.S.-China talks in Kuala Lumpur last October, the U.S. removed a 10% fentanyl tariff and suspended 24% in reciprocal tariffs for one year. Currently, most Chinese exports to the U.S. still face tariff rates between 30% and 50%, including the remaining 10% fentanyl levy, 25% duties on steel and aluminum, and Section 301 tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 25%.

China has a good chance of securing the removal of the fentanyl tariffs, said Wang Dong, professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, adding that he was optimistic regarding the outcome of what would be Trump’s first visit to China during his second term of office. (See MNI: More China-US Tensions Likely Despite Progress-Advisors)

In addition to potential purchases of U.S. agricultural and energy products, China could also commit to a gradual, sector-by-sector opening up of its services industries, he said.

Further relaxation of U.S. controls on exports of high-tech or sensitive goods, as well as China’s rare-earth restrictions, is unlikely to be on the agenda, Wang said, adding that the focus would be on addressing easier issues and improving overall U.S.-China trade relations. (See MNI: Trump-Xi Meet Likely, But Any Deal Modest-China Advisors)

It is likely that the U.S. could agree to extend the suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs, with the two sides and their leaders possibly agreeing to meet again during the APEC summit in Shenzhen this November, he said.

Lin Hongyu, vice president of Huaqiao University, said China's primary focus will be to ensure that the consensus reached during the last leaders' summit can continue to solidify, and to ensure that this is not endangered by Trump’s unpredictable moves in other areas of international relations and security around the world.

UNCERTAIN VISIT

However, advisors said that Trump's April visit to China is still not set in stone. A shadow has been cast over the potential meeting by last month’s announcement of over USD11.1 billion in sales of U.S. weapons and equipment to Taiwan, the largest U.S. arms sales to the island, the advisors said. In addition, the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, passed by the U.S. Senate, allocated USD1 billion to support the "Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative.” 

Wang Peng, research fellow at the Institute of State Governance at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, noted that Trump’s push for key Taiwanese industries to relocate to the U.S. could also trigger Chinese countermeasures, as well as the arms sales.

Beijing has not yet officially confirmed Trump's visit, only indicating that reaching a major trade agreement requires more time to build mutual trust and negotiate details, Wang said. 

Setting stable long-term tariff levels between China and the U.S will be challenging in the short term, and a likely path will be to continue the model of the 2025 Geneva talks, gradually reducing tariffs through phased and reciprocal steps, he said.