EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $44.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $45.128 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $44.533 - 3.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $44.118 - High Sep 22       
• PRICE: $43.885 @ 07:51 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $41.339 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $39.584- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20  
• SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded higher Monday as the bull cycle extended. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $44.533 next, a 3.000 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 45.128, the 3.236 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $41.339, the 20-day EMA.

GBP STIRs open around late Monday levels as Bunds and Tsy futures firm away from Asia lows through early London trade.

• Fresh weakness in oil futures is probably factoring in here, with macro headlines light overnight and cash Tsy markets adjusting after being closed through Asia-Pac hours (owing to a Japanese holiday).
• SONIA futures flat to -1.5.
• BoE-dated OIS shows 1.5bp of easing for November and 6bp through year-end, we continue to suggest that the market is underestimating the odds of further easing before year-end.
• UK flash PMI data is due today.
• It is also worth noting that the DMO will come to market with 30-Year gilts. Market participants will be watching the demand metrics closely after last week’s PSNB data revealed ongoing fiscal deterioration.
• On the fiscal front, the Resolution Foundation has suggested that Chancellor Reeves could raise ~GBP6bln by cutting employee national insurance contributions by 2ppt and raising the basic rate of income tax by the same amount. Note that this would only cover around 20% of the fiscal shortfall, but it would be a way of not increasing taxes on "working people" and might avoid some more painful taxes elsewhere that could hit growth harder or increase CPI.
• Elsewhere, BoE chief economist Pill will speak via a fireside chat on “Challenges of Monetary Policy in an Environment of High Fiscal and Geopolitical Uncertainty” (10:00 London).

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $65.43/68.43 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $61.98 @ 07:19 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low.