USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Reversal
* RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg * RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a k...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BONDS: Broader buying in US Tsys and EGBs
Some broader intraday high in Bond futures on both sides of the Pond, for Treasuries and EGBs.
Not seen any standout flow, around 5k in Bund, 3k in TYU5 cumulative, but Block trades also went through in Germany, suggest all buyer, helping the upticks:
- RXU5 total of ~6k at 129.06 (2 Blocks).
- UBU5 ~2.2k at 113.76.
That little pullback lower in Yield is helping the USDJPY towards the session low.
US TSY OPTIONS: September Tsy Option Expiration Roundup
As noted in the Sep/Dec roll bullet - Sep'25 Treasury options expire Friday, the latest open interest as of Monday's close outlined below. Plenty of time to worry about pin risk - but nearest ATM highlighted below. Options that are 0.5 tic in-the-money (0.25 tic for 5- & 2Y option) are auto-exercised. Underlying futures are firmer this morning following lower build permits (outweighing rise in starts), projected rate cuts into year end gain slightly (Dec at -54.1bp vs. -53.5bp pre-data)..
| Expiry | Total Calls | Total Puts | Total | Nearest ATM Strike (Total C/P) |
| Sep 30Y | 237,617 | 413,399 | 651,016 | 113.5 (1,348C, 8,439P; 9,787 total) |
| USU5 114-03 | 114.0 (18,691C, 2,335P; 21,026 total) | |||
| 114.5 (4,819C, 8,102P; 12,921 total) | ||||
| Sep 10Y | 1,201,898 | 1,135,307 | 2,337,205 | 111.5 (95,587C, 77,421P; 173,008 total) |
| TYU5 111-22 | 111.75 (21,886C, 23,686P; 45,572 total) | |||
| 112.0 (188,434C, 51,841P; 240,275 total) | ||||
| Sep 5Y | 426,146 | 450,424 | 876,570 | 108.5 (34,845C, 38,624P; 73,469 total) |
| FVU5 108-23 | 108.7 (24,807C, 12,896P; 37,703 total) | |||
| 109.0 (51,097C, 43,869P; 94,966 total) | ||||
| Sep 2Y | 173,978 | 149,366 | 323,344 | 103.62 (7,394C, 7,922P; 15,316 total) |
| 103-26.5 | 103.75 (14,113C, 22,419P; 36,532 total) | |||
| 103.88 (11,618C, 21,097P; 32,715 total) |
UK DATA: MNI UK CPI Preview: July 2025
For the full document including summaries of 18 sellside analyst views click here.
- This week’s CPI data has taken on added importance following the close 5-4 vote split at the last MPC meeting.
- Rather than services inflation, the MPC is focused on headline CPI which is expected to come in higher than in June (which saw some base effects weigh on aspects such as accommodation).
- From the previews that we have read the median expectation is for a 3.7%Y/Y (with a mean of 3.71%). This would be marginally below the BOE’s forecast of 3.76%Y/Y.
- The BOE forecast electricity and gas bills to fall 5.1%M/M in July whereas the Ofgem price cap fell 7.0%M/M. Some analysts did of course take the methodology change into effect but the difference between these two values on headline CPI will be just under 6bp which fully explains the gap between the BOE’s forecast and consensus.
- From the previews that we have read are lower for services than the BOE (4.8% median, 4.81% mean, 4.88% BOE). Interestingly, the overall expectation from the previews that we have read is that core will come in at 3.7% median / 3.69% mean (BOE 3.71%). But core goods is expected broadly in line with the BOE. These forecasts are therefore a little inconsistent.
- Food inflation is expected to increase further.
- And we look again at why CPI data is so important at the moment and how food prices can influence inflation expectations more than other goods / services.
