AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7
- PRICE: 0.6440 @ 07:55 BST May 15
- SUP 1: 0.6352 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
The trend condition in AUDUSD is bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Tuesday’s strong gains signal the end of the corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6352, the 50-day EMA.
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EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls
Moves in Estoxx Futures are tiny in early trade, similar to Yesterday.
VGM5 is back to circa flat, small downside risks on these calls.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.07%, Dax: +0.67%, CAC: -0.43%, FTSE +0.26%, SMI +0.10%.
STIR: Still Pricing 3 BoE Cuts Through Year-End, Tomorrow's CPI Eyed
Modest dovish moves in GBP STIRs this morning, reacting to the overnight uptick in core global FI markets and perhaps some of the weaker elements of the labour market data (wages and payrolled employees were softer-than-expected, although the employment change was firmer-than-expected).
- BoE-dated OIS 0.5-1.5bp more dovish across ’25 meetings.
- 23bp of cuts priced for next month, 32bp through June, 50bp through August and 77bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures flat to +4.0.
- Tomorrow’s CPI data provides the next key domestic risk event.
- The Bank of England forecast headline CPI at +2.71% Y/Y and the MNI median looks for a potential downside surprise here (+2.62%) while the Bloomberg consensus is broadly in line with the Bank’s forecast at 2.7%.
- Our full preview of that release can be found here.
- Expect macro cues to dominate between now and then.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.229 | -22.9 |
Jun-25 | 4.140 | -31.9 |
Aug-25 | 3.956 | -50.3 |
Sep-25 | 3.863 | -59.5 |
Nov-25 | 3.729 | -72.9 |
Dec-25 | 3.688 | -77.0 |
MNI: FRANCE MAR HICP +0.2% M/M, +0.9% Y/Y
- MNI: FRANCE MAR HICP +0.2% M/M, +0.9% Y/Y
- FRANCE MAR CPI +0.2% M/M, +0.8% Y/Y
