EURJPY TECHS: Bull Trend Extension

• RES 4: 182.64 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 182.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 181.80 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 181.01 1.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• PRICE: 180.74 @ 17:36 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: 179.26 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 178.14/176.30 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 174.82 Low Oct 17  
• SUP 4: 174.51 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low 

A firm bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are 181.01 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Further out, scope is seen for a move towards the 182.00 handle. First key support lies at 177.93, the 20-day EMA.  

• Treasuries mildly extended session lows in the last few minutes, now drawing some modest buying as participants continue to digest the October FOMC minutes discourse.
• While opinions "differed strongly", the minutes suggest that it may only be a minority of the Committee that is pushing for a follow-up cut.
• Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades -1.5 at 112-23.5 after slipping to 112-22.5 low. Attention is on 112-10+, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support also lies at 112-06+.
• Curves have unwound this week's steepening, 2s10s -.733 at 53.148, 5s30s -.431 at 104.291.
• Projected rate cut pricing has receded from this morning's levels (*): Dec'25 steady at -12bp, Jan'26 at -21.6bp (-22.1bp), Mar'26 at -32.6bp (-33.4bp), Apr'26 at -40.1bp (-41.1bp).
• Cross asset comparison: Bbg US$ continues to climb: BBDXY +6.33 at 1225.76; stocks generally mixed with SPX eminis +13 at 6653.00 while the DJIA trades down 56.92 points (-0.12%) at 45946.4. Crude weaker: WTI -1.31 at 59.43.

• WTI has lost ground today as the market digests signs of renewed efforts by the US to strike a Ukraine peace deal, coupled with an unexpected rise in US crude stocks last week.
• WTI Dec 25 is down by 2.1% at $59.4/bbl.
• Axios reported that the US has put together a new 28-point Ukraine peace plan after closed US-Russia discussions.
• Meanwhile, Reuters said that the US-drafted framework to end the war with Russia proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons.
• From a technical perspective, WTI futures are trading in a range. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
• Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has given up earlier gains amid a rally in the dollar as the FOMC minutes suggested limited appetite for a follow-up rate cut in December.
• Gold is currently up by just 0.2% at $4,075/oz, having traded as high as $4,132.86 earlier in the session.
• Recent gains in gold suggest that the correction between Oct 20 and 28 is over. With the metal retracing off last week’s high, the key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3,942.7. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4,245.23, the Nov 13 high.