JGBS: Bull-Flattener To End The Week, Tariffs Remain In Focus

• RES 4: 119.790 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.600 High Apr 22           
• RES 2: 118.300 High May 7  
• RES 1: 118.280 High Jun 3 / 5   
• PRICE: 117.820 @ 05:39 BST Jun 11  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the sharp pullback on May 5 - for now - still appears corrective. The recovery since mid May highlights a reversal and the end of a correction in April and May. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a move towards 118.300, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 118.790, the Apr 7 high. Support to monitor is 117.470, the May 21 low. The bull trigger is 118.280, Jun 3 / 5 high.

JGB futures are stronger and near session highs, +15 compared to settlement levels

• BBG notes: " Buying back of super-long government bonds from July is unrealistic and not envisioned, an official from Japan's Ministry of Finance said in an email to Bloomberg News."
• Reuters Poll Summary – Bank of Japan Outlook: 52% of economists expect the BOJ to hold its key interest rate at 0.50% through year-end, up from 48% in May; 55% expect the BOJ to slow bond purchases starting April 2026, while 45% see no change;78% forecast a rate hike to at least 0.75% by end-Q1 2026; and 75% expect a reduction in super-long JGB issuance, while 25% see it unchanged.
• Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session ahead of today's CPI data.
• Earlier US-China trade talk headlines from London had little impact on the markets.
• Cash JGBs are slightly mixed across benchmarks, with a mild steepening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bps lower at 1.466%.
• Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower. Swap spreads are tighter.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see BSI Industry Survey, Weekly International Investment Flows and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data alongside an auction for Enhanced-Liquidity of 15.5 - 39-year JGBs.

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1495 High June 05
• PRICE: 1.1415 @ 06:01 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 1.1356 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1232/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is unchanged and continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. The breach of 1.1419, May 26 high, confirmed an extension of the current bull cycle and sights are on 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 1.1232, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme. Initial support is 1.1356, the 20-day EMA.