JGBS: Bull-Flattener Partially Reverses Some Of This Week's Carnage

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22                                     
• PRICE: 119.630 @ 05:55 BST Apr 23  
• SUP 1: 119.030 Low Apr 17       
• SUP 2: 118.703 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10   
• SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

Bobl futures are holding on to their latest highs. Recent weakness appears corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. Firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, is at 118.703.

ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM +1.5) are dealing mixed on a data light Sydney session, with the short-end under pressure as markets re-assess tariff-tied risks to global trade and the Trump Admin's efforts to meddling with the Federal Reserve's independent policy making.

• Risk-on sentiment extended into today's Asia-Pacific session after US President Trump stated that he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell.
• Trump also stated that the final tariff number for China wouldn't be near the current 145%.
• Cash US tsys have twist-flattened in today's Asia-Pac session, with yields 2bps higher to 8bps lower.
• Cash ACGBs are 5bps cheaper to 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
• Today’s auction of the Apr-29 bond saw the weighted average yield settle 0.88bps below the prevailing mid-yield. However, the cover ratio declined dramatically to 3.2200x from 4.2143x at the previous auction.
• Swap rates are flat to 5bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
• The bills strip is cheaper with pricing -4 to -9.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-11bps firmer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 13% probability, with a cumulative 114bps of easing priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow morning, RBA Governor Bullock will participate in a panel discussion at the IMF Spring Meetings.

• RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 1: 1.1573 High Apr 21 
• PRICE: 1.1389 @ 06:05 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.1308 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 1.1167 20-day EMA and a key support    
• SUP 3: 1.0919 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

The trend in EURUSD remains bullish and the pullback from Monday’s cycle high is considered corrective. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a continued dominant uptrend. The focus is on 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1167.