USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 149.52 @ 18:56 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 148.38/147.47 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
USDJPY traded higher last week as the pair extended the recovery that started Sep 17. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Also, moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 149.14, the Sep 3 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance. Pivot support is 145.49, Sep 17 low.
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STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 SOFR Sale
- -10,000 SFRZ5 96.225 (+0.010), post time bid at 1453:00ET
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Large Oct'25 10Y Call Buyer
SOFR Options continued to rotate around low delta call structures Friday, while Treasury options favored puts until a massive buyer of over 100,000 Oct 10Y calls arrived in the second half. Treasury futures drift near session lows, the short end of the SOFR strip saw modest support (SFRU5-SFRH7 trades +0.005 to +0.010). Projected rate cuts in turn continue to gain momentum vs. morning (*) levels: Sep'25 at -22.0bp (-21.2bp), Oct'25 at -35.6bp (-34.1bp), Dec'25 at -56.0bp (-54.9bp), Jan'26 at -68.1bp (-67.1bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +1,500 SFRM6/SFRU6 97.50/98.50/99.50 call fly strip, 14.0
- +2,000 SFRM6 96.87/97.18 call spd vs. 0QM6 97.25/97.50 call spd
- +8,000 0QU5 96.75 puts, 2.0
- +10,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.25 call spds, 0.5 vs. 95.935/0.05%
- Update, +10,000 SFRZ5 95.68/95.81/96.00/96.12 call condors, 3.5
- 1,275 SFRX5 96.00/96.12 call spds vs. 96.00/96.12 call spds
- +3,000 0QH6 97.50/98.00 call spd w/ 0QM6 97.50/98.00 call spds, 17.0
- +20,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.43 1x2 call spds, 1.25
- Block, 4,000 0QZ5 96.50/96.87 put spds vs. 3QZ5 96.25/96.62 put spds, 0.5 net
- -3,000 SFRU5 96.06/96.18 call spds, 0.5 ref 95.895
- +2,000 SFRU5 95.93/96.00/96.06 call flys, 0.5
- +18,800 SFRU5 96.00/96.12 call spds, 1.0 ref 95.91/0.10%
- +10,500 SFRU5 96.00/96.06 call spds, 0.5 ref 95.897
- 2,000 SFRZ5 96.37 calls ref 96.215
- Treasury Options:
- Update, +100,000 TYV5 114 calls, 12-13 ref 112-16.5/0.18%, total volume over 117k
- +10,000 TYV5 108/109 put spds, 1.0
- +1,000 wk1 FV 109.5 straddles, 17.5
- 1,120 TYX5 110.5/112.5 put spds ref 112-16
- 4,000 FVV5 109 puts, 14.5 last
- +2,000 FVV5 108.25/109 put spds, 11.5
- +20,000 FVV5 108.25/108.75 put spds, 6.5 ref 109-13.75
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Recovers From Its Recent Lows
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.805/960 - High Aug 8 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.705 @ 19:55 BST Aug 29
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.720 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures have recovered from their recent lows. To the upside, the next resistance is at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial near-term resistance is seen at 95.805, the Aug 4 high. A break of this hurdle would be a bullish development. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
