EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact
* RES 4: 186.41 2.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing * RES 3: 185.79 Bull channel t...
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GBPUSD TECHS: Doji Reversal
- RES 4: 1.3416 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3269 High Nov 27
- PRICE: 1.3216 @ 06:25 GMT Dec 1
- SUP 1: 1.3125 Low Nov 26
- SUP 2: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
The trend theme in GBPUSD is bearish and recovery in November appears corrective - for now. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3259. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger bull theme. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.3010, the Nov 4 / 5 low, is the trigger for a resumption of the bear leg. Note that last Thursday’s pattern is a doji - a bear reversal signal.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 01-Dec | 0930 | Oct/Nov | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 / S&P Manuf PMI (f) |
| 01-Dec | 1530 | --- | DMO FQ4 consultations with investors / GEMMs |
| 01-Dec | 1530 | --- | BOE Dhingra Keynote at UK Trade Policy Observatory |
| 02-Dec | 0001 | Nov | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02-Dec | 0700 | H2 | BOE Financial Stability Report |
| 03-Dec | 0930 | Nov | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Dec | 1700 | --- | BOE Mann in Panel on Reserve Currencies |
| 04-Dec | 0930 | Nov | BOE Decision Maker Panel Data / S&P Construction PMI |
| 04-Dec | 1245 | --- | BOE Mann Panel at European & Global Issues Conference |
| 05-Dec | 0730 | --- | DMO to publish issuance calendar for FQ4 |
| 08-Dec | 0001 | --- | KPMG-REC Report on Jobs |
| 08-Dec | 1430 | --- | BOE Taylor Panel on Growth/Wealth/Debt |
| 08-Dec | 1830 | --- | BOE Lombardelli Panel on Women in Economics |
| 09-Dec | 0001 | Nov | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 11-Dec | 0001 | Nov | RICS House Prices |
| 11-Dec | 0950 | --- | BOE Bailey Pre-recorded Fireside Chat on Financial Stability |
| 12-Dec | 0700 | Oct | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 12-Dec | 0930 | Nov | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 118.600 High Oct 24
- RES 3: 118.360 High Oct 28
- RES 2: 118.270 High Nov 5
- RES 1: 118.082/180 50-day EMA / High Nov 21
- PRICE: 117.940 @ 06:02 GMT Dec 1
- SUP 1: 117.790 Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6
- SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1
- SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 15 and a key support
The short-term trend theme in Bobl futures remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. Note that 117.824, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A resumption of the downleg would open 117.630, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance is at 118.082, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it is required to signal a potential reversal.
