EQUITIES: Bull Cycle in E-Mini S&P Remains Intact, Sights on $6600 Handle Next
A corrective bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5368.81, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, the contract has recovered above the 20-day EMA - a bullish development. A stronger reversal would open 5445.00, the Aug 26 high. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Wednesday, breaching the Sep 5 high of 6541.75. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6600.00 handle next. Initial support to watch is 6469.93, the 20-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 534.83 pts or +1.22% at 44372.5 and the TOPIX ended 6.79 pts higher or +0.22% at 3147.76.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 63.088 pts or +1.65% at 3875.309 and the HANG SENG ended 113.94 pts lower or -0.43% at 26086.32.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 20.82 pts or -0.09% at 23613.44, FTSE 100 higher by 39.43 pts or +0.43% at 9264.81, CAC 40 up 36.82 pts or +0.47% at 7798.14 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 4.12 pts or +0.08% at 5365.59.
- Dow Jones mini up 23 pts or +0.05% at 45563, S&P 500 mini up 8 pts or +0.12% at 6547.75, NASDAQ mini up 47.25 pts or +0.2% at 23925.
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GERMAN DATA: Bundesbank Weekly Activity Tracker Holds Recent Deterioration
The Bundesbank weekly activity tracker firmly points towards weak developments in the first half of Q3 in Germany.
- Most recently published data (from yesterday) for the w/c August 3 implies a German GDP growth rate for the last 13 weeks compared with the preceding 13 weeks of -0.3%. The current weakness started to intensify in early June, coinciding with weak industrial activity data for that month (June Industrial Production Weaker Then Expected).
- Note that the indicator can see material revisions as more data is collected over time and tracking performance to GDP has not always been consistent (see charts below). For now though the trends indicated appear to be quite clear-cut, with the current period of weakness holding up weeks after the initial deterioration. Nevertheless, we do advise some caution around putting too much weight on the data.
- The WAI fluctuates around its long-term mean of 0. Positive values indicate above-average growth in real economic activity, while negative values signal a below average increase or a decline in economic output. The index takes into account data on electricity consumption, truck mileage, flight activity, foot traffic, air pollution, credit card payments, as well as German google searches for "unemployment", "short-time work", and "state support".
SPAIN AUCTION RESULTS: 3/9-month letras results
| Type | 3-month letras | 9-month letras |
| Maturity | Nov 7, 2025 | May 8, 2026 |
| Amount | E900mln | E1.625bln |
| Target | E2-3bln | Shared |
| Previous | E834mln | E1.966bln |
| Avg yield | 1.929% | 1.959% |
| Previous | 1.905% | 1.905% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.32x | 2.14x |
| Previous | 2.52x | 1.79x |
| Previous date | Jul 08, 2025 | Jul 08, 2025 |
OAT: Basis trade
OAT Basis trade, suggest Cash buyer:
- OATU5 ~7.9k at 123.05.
