EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
Nov-19 14:52
- RES 4: 182.64 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 3: 182.00 Round number resistanc e
- RES 2: 181.80 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 181.01 1.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- PRICE: 180.94 @ 14:52 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 179.26 Low Nov 17
- SUP 2: 178.14/176.30 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 174.82 Low Oct 17
- SUP 4: 174.51 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
A firm bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are 181.01 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Further out, scope is seen for a move towards the 182.00 handle. First key support lies at 177.93, the 20-day EMA.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
SONIA OPTIONS: SFIH6 1x2 Call Spread Buyer
Oct-20 14:49
SFIH6 96.30/50 1x2 call spread, paper pays 2.25 in +4.5k (bought the 1 leg)
EGBS: BTP/Bund Spread Near Session Lows, Growth Data Key To Further Narrowing
Oct-20 14:31
The 10-year BTP/Bund spread trades close to session lows of ~78.5bps, benefiting from the latest extension higher in global equity futures.
- We highlighted last week that having already tightened by ~35bps this year, the 10-year BTP/Bund spread has struggled to sustainably consolidated below 80bps in recent months.
- Signs of a more resilient domestic growth outlook may be a necessary condition for further narrowing. Although the 2026 draft budget projects the Italian deficit to fall to 2.8% next year, a weak growth trajectory may impede continued improvements in fiscal metrics. Q3 flash GDP is due on October 30.
- Note that EUR 3m10y swaption vol has also moved away from multi-year lows through October, which may be limiting near-term tightening impulses.
- BTP futures are +7 ticks at 121.53, off session lows of 121.58. Initial resistance is Friday’s opening high of 121.94.
- Italy is issuing the new retail-only 7-year Oct-32 BTP Valore this week. Day 1 books are currently E4.9bln. That’s above the E3.7bln raised on the first day of the last BTP Valore issue in May 2024, but currently below the E5.6bln raised on the first day of the BTP Piu issue in February 2025.
BOC: Canada Consumer And Business Inflation Views Soften But Remain Elevated
Oct-20 14:30
- Firms expecting inflation exceeding BOC target rate declined from 74% in Q2 to 69% in Q3.
- Two-thirds of consumers foresee a recession within a year, blaming trade war, yet also see inflation at 3.72% now and 4% a year from now.
- CSCE indicator -0.85 from prior -1.07; remains below historical levels.
- 70% of consumers believe the worst inflation spill-over is yet to come from tariffs.
- Surveys mostly gathered from July through Sept. BOC has said it will remain cautious on interest rates after a return to cutting last month.
