USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4548 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.4513 @ 16:33 GMT Mar 4
- SUP 1: 1.4370/4296 Low Mar 3 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The USDCAD correction / bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Monday’s gains reinforce current conditions and sights are on a climb towards 1.4548, a Fibonacci retracement point. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4296, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early reversal signal.
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FOREX: USD Surges At Monday Open On US Tariff Implementation
Early Monday G10 FX trends are heavily favored for the USD, following the weekend tariff announcements from the US administration. The weekend announcement will see 25% tariffs levied on Mexico and Canada, along with 10% on China, starting this Tuesday (see this BBG link). Tariffs on Canada energy exports will be set at a lower 10%.
- Canada has already detailed retaliation plans, which will be done in two phases. Firstly on around on around C$30bn worth of US exports, then a larger product list in a few weeks (around C$125bn per BBG). Mexico and China have vowed a response, but have yet to release any specifics.
- USD/CAD spiked to fresh highs, 1.4749, but was last 1.4725/30. This was fresh highs back to 2003. EUR/USD is also down over 1%, last 1.0240 (earlier lows were 1.0141.
- AUD/USD is at 0.6155/600, slightly up from session lows. We are off 1%, while NZD/USD is down 0.90%, to 0.5580/85.
- USD/CNH is up to 7.3600, 0.50% weaker in CNH terms.
- Yen is outperforming, likely on safe haven related demand. USD/JPY was last sub 155.00, the only G10 currency firmer against the USD so far today.
CANADA STILL CONSIDERING TAX ON OIL EXPORTS TO US- OFFICIAL
- CANADA STILL CONSIDERING TAX ON OIL EXPORTS TO US- OFFICIAL
FED: Powell To Deliver Semi-Annual Testimony In Mid-Feb
The House Financial Services Committee's website confirms that Fed Chair Powell will deliver his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday Feb 12 at 1000ET.
- The Semi-annual testimony will be closely eyed as Powell's first scheduled appearance since the January FOMC - and the House testimony on the 12th is the same day as the release of January CPI (and the week after nonfarm payrolls and benchmark revisions) so will be of particular interest.
