USDCAD TECHS: Builds On This Week’s Gains
Jan-09 21:00
* RES 4: 1.3977 High Dec 4 * RES 3: 1.3950 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg * RES 2:...
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USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
Dec-10 21:00
- RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 2: 1.3939/3971 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3888 Low Oct 29
- PRICE: 1.3839 @ 16:37 GMT Dec 10
- SUP 1: 1.3800 Low Dec 08
- SUP 2: 1.3769 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Sep17
- SUP 4: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact - reinforced by the intraday reversal off the post-BOC high. The pair has breached the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The break highlights a stronger bear cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3769 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3971, 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
ASIA: Coming Up In Asia-Pac Markets On Thursday
Dec-10 20:56
| 2145BST | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | NZ Q3 Manufacturing Volume/Activity |
| 2350BST | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Q4 BSI Large Industry/Mfg |
| 2350BST | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Portfolio Flows Dec 5 |
| 0000BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | South Korea Trade Dec 10 Days |
| 0000BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia Sells A$150mn 2035 Inflation Linked Bonds |
| 0030BST | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia Nov Employment/Unemployment |
| 0135BST | 0935HKT | 1235AEDT | NZ Sells 2030/2033/2054 Bonds |
| 0200BST | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | Japan Nov Tokyo Office Vacancies |
| 0335BST | 1135HKT | 1435AEDT | Japan Sells 20-yr Bonds |
US TSYS: Rates Rally, Fed Guidance Less Hawkish Than Anticipated
Dec-10 20:54
- Treasuries look to finish near late session highs after the FOMC delivered an expected 25bp rate cut, while anticipation for hawkish guidance proved less so - fueling bull curve steepening as Chairman Powell answered journalist questions.
- Currently, the TYH6 contract trades +10.5 at 113-13.5 vs. 113-14.5, initial key resistance is seen at 112-25+, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible reversal.
- Policymakers penciled in one more rate cut in 2026 and in 2027 on median, unchanged from the September Summary of Economic Projections. "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the Fed said in its post-meeting statement.
- As the FOMC press conference progressed, negative sentiment towards the dollar has re-emerged, with the USD index extending session lows and now down a little more than 0.5%. Gains across the G10 have been broad based and are certainly more balanced than earlier on Wednesday.
- Earlier data - the ECI increased 0.79% non-annualized in Q3 (sa, cons 0.9) after an unrevised 0.94% in Q2 and 0.89% in Q1. It’s the softest quarter since 2Q21. The wages & salaries component also moderated to 0.79% after 1.01% in Q2 although that’s back close to the 0.77% in Q1.
