CANADA: Budget Deficit Grows To CAD78.3B From CAD42.2B, Record Ex Covid
Nov-04 21:04
- Deficit-to-GDP ratio projected to fall to 1.5% in 2029 from 2.5% in 2025.
- Federal debt-to-GDP 42.4% in 2025; expected to rise to 43.1% over next 5-year horizon. Liberals had pledged to lower this ratio over time.
- US trade war is a main drag on fiscal position as well as new spending.
- Immigration: Permanent resident targets to stabilize at 380,000, -15k from 2025, annually for three years. Temporary resident targets to fall from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026, and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
- Public service jobs to decline by about 40k, or 10%, by the end of 2028-29.
- Finance Minister Champagne says Canada using its "fiscal firepower" to fight against U.S. trade war, and the fiscal plan can win needed support from some opposition lawmakers to pass the budget and avoid a snap election.
- Private economist survey used in budget saw BOC rate unchanged through next year at 2.25%.
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asian Markets On Monday
Oct-05 20:55
| 0430BST | 1130HKT | 1430AEDT | Thailand Sep CPI |
| 0600BST | 1300HKT | 1600AEDT | India Sep F HSBC PMI Services |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/MNI
ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Monday
Oct-05 20:47
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | New Zealand ANZ Sep Commodity Price |
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia Sep Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
JAPAN: Yen Slumps On Surprise Takaichi Victory, Focus On Fiscal/BOJ Outlook
Oct-05 20:33
Japan markets will be in focus in the first part of Monday trade, following Sanae Takaichi's victory in the weekend LDP leadership election. This is no doubt a surprise to the market given market odds, per Polymarket were firmly in favour of Koizumi winning the race. His odds were at 82 on Friday, versus Takaichi who was at low of 12 before Saturday's vote.
- An extraordinary session of the Diet will be held around Oct to choose a new PM. Goldman Sachs notes: "Since Ms. Takaichi has stated that the LDP and Komei coalition comes first, but would consider adding parties that share the same basic policy philosophy to the coalition, we assume that the minority government formed by the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition will continue, seeking cooperation from opposition parties on a case-by-case basis."
- However, it adds that given Takaichi's policy bias around pro-fiscal policy it could expand the coalition to include like minded parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People.
- This will be a key focus points for markets, given Takaichi's historical position around supporting fiscal policy to support growth. Her stance appeared to soften somewhat as the leadership campaign unfolded, she is expected to focus on cash handouts and tax rebates for households to reduce cost of living pressures. Via BBG: "While saying her spending plans will be “responsible” and that she’ll ensure the nation’s net debt load will fall over time, she said “the goal is achieving economic growth, not fiscal health,”
- This comes at a time when fiscal policy uncertainty has already been elevated in Japan, with the JGB yield curve just off historically steep levels.
- On the BoJ, via BBG: "In the latest leadership campaign, she toned down her scathing views on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes from last year, when she described its raising of rates as “stupid.” But in a recent Kyodo survey she still said the BOJ should leave interest rates unchanged for now."
- This has helped drive USD/JPY higher this morning, up 1.4% to 149.50/55, with end Sep highs just short of 150.00 now in focus.
