JAPAN DATA: BSI Q2 Survey Falls, Hinting At Softer Domestic Conditions
Jun-12 00:20
Japan's Q2 BSI gauge fell for both all industry and large manufacturing. The all industry reading was -1.9, from +2.0 in Q1. The large manufacturing read is now at -4.8 from -2.4 in Q1.
- For the all industry segment, we are now at lowest levels since early 2023. The reading tends to be more volatile than the more closely followed Tankan survey. The chart below plots the BSI all industry index against the Tankan all industry diffusion index (which is the orange line on the chart).
- Still, the BSI read is hinting at softer economic conditions. "Japan’s 2Q domestic economic conditions fell -6.2 ppt" (via BBG), versus +3.1 in Q1. This reading was for all industries.
Fig 1: Japan BSI All Industry Business Conditions & Tankan All Industry Index
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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US TSYS: Cash Open
May-13 00:05
TYM5 is trading 110-04+, unchanged from its from its close.
- The US 2-year yield opens around 4.00%, down 0.01 from its close.
- The US 10-year yield opens around 4.463%, down 0.01 from its close
- Bloomberg - “ Investors are avoiding Treasury bills that mature in August due to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's warning that the US may run out of cash if the federal debt ceiling isn't raised or suspended by then.”
- “The Treasury's $76 billion auction of three-month bills that will mature in August received tepid investor demand, with a high rate of 4.30% and a small award to indirect bidders.”
- After a significant hawkish re-pricing on positive trade developments, Fed Funds futures imply a next Fed cut coming in July (two meetings away) is only a 50/50 call with it fully priced for September. - MNI US
- The 10-year Yield range seems to be 4.10% - 4.5%, price has bounced nicely off the 4.25/30 support, price is now testing the upper bound of the range around 4.45/50%. A sustained break above this level would see another round of selling targeting the 4.75% area.
- Data: US CPI
JPY: Little Change in USD/JPY Post BoJ Summary Of Opinions
May-13 00:04
USD/JPY was little changed post the release of the BoJ Summary Of Opinions (SOO) from the early May policy meeting. We were last near 148.20, down slightly from end NY levels on Monday.
- The SOO had a strong emphasis on high uncertainties facing the outlook, particularly in terms of US trade policy. Still there is scope to raise rates if the outlook is realized, but the discussion recognised upside and downside risks to the outlook. Also less certainty of achieving the outlook compared to earlier in the year, which saw the downward forecast revisions at the May 1 meeting outcome. All in all the central bank is wait and see mode for the near term.
JGBS: Futures Sharply Weaker Overnight On US-CH Tariff Pause
May-12 23:33
In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed sharply weaker, -75 compared to settlement levels, after a heavy session for US tsys.
- US tsys gapped lower in early London trade and stocks surged to the pre-Liberation Day levels (April 2) after the US and China agreed to pause their retaliatory reciprocal tariffs for 90 days.
- After a collective sigh of relief, US tsys traded sideways, near session lows for much of the session. Today’s focus is on April US CPI figures at 0830ET.
- According to MNI technicals team, JGB 10-year futures are holding the bulk of the recent strong bullish reversal from early April, rejecting any test of fresh cycle lows for the M5 contract. This defies the bearish momentum studies drawn on the longer-term chart, clearing moving-average resistance to print 142.40 at the new upper level. To the downside, sights are on 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 144.48 is the medium-term target on any recovery.
- “Japan life insurers could temporarily slow net selling of foreign assets following the US-China 90-day tariff truce, as it could provide greater visibility on their expectations for Japan's long-term bond yields.” (per BBG)
- Today, the local calendar will see BoJ Summary of Opinions (April MPM) and Money Stock data alongside 30-year supply.
