EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: bpost: 2Q results
(BPOST: NR/A-)
+3 uplift for 51% Belgian state (AA)
Results continue to be very lacklustre - the below growth rates are post an acquisition from last year - without that earnings are well down y/y. Says it can now come towards top-end of €150-180m FY EBIT guidance (-20–33% y/y) - that y/y fall despite having contribution from the higher margin acquired co for the entire of this year (vs. from Aug last year).
- "BPOST 2Q REV. EU1.09B, EST. EU1.13B
- BPOST 2Q ADJ. EBITDA EU151.4M, +13% Y/Y
- BPOST 2Q ADJ. EBIT EU58.3M, +0.9% Y/Y" -bbg
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AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6544 @ 08:03 BST Jul 09
- SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
- SUP 2: 0.6474/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. A fresh cycle high earlier this month maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6474, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: EUR Implied Rates Unfazed By Latest Tariff Threats
Little net change in ECB-dated OIS this morning, with one more 25bp cut this cycle still fully priced – in line with the rate path embedded in the ECB’s June projections. Markets have looked through yesterday evenings tariff headlines. Although US President Trump’s threat of a 200% pharma tariff would have significant ramifications for the likes of Ireland, Italy and Germany if implemented, the market impact is dampened by (i) Trump’s history of pulling back from his most extreme threats and (ii) yesterday’s comments already suggesting there would be a 1/1.5-year phase in period.
- The FT reported this morning that EU negotiators are closing in on a framework agreement with the US. This would include the baseline 10% reciprocal tariff but no carve outs for specific sectors (compared with e.g. the UK). Trump said yesterday that the EU's "tariff letter" could come in the next few days.
- The next ECB decision is due in just over 2 weeks (July 24). Markets assign virtually zero chance of a cut. Overnight, ECB’s Vujcic told Handelsblatt that the bank can “wait for further data”, pointing to the September meeting as the next opportunity to properly assess the policy stance.
- Euribor futures are little changed through the blues. The U5/U6 spread remains above the trendline drawn from the April high, after piercing this resistance yesterday.
- Very light regional data calendar today, leaving focus on ECB speakers (Lane, de Guindos, Nagel).
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-25 | 1.915 | -0.4 |
| Sep-25 | 1.804 | -11.5 |
| Oct-25 | 1.774 | -14.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.689 | -23.0 |
| Feb-26 | 1.675 | -24.5 |
| Mar-26 | 1.651 | -26.8 |
| Apr-26 | 1.659 | -26.0 |
| Jun-26 | 1.665 | -25.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
- RES 1: 172.38 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- PRICE: 172.19 @ 07:59 BST Jul 09
- SUP 1: 169.77 Low Jul 07
- SUP 2: 168.70 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20
- SUP 4: 166.27 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross continues to appreciate. Fresh cycle highs this week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.38 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 168.70, the 20-day EMA.
