BTP: Blcok trade

"*TAIWAN SAYS TO CONDUCT NEW ROUND OF TRADE TALKS W/ US THIS WEEK" Bloomberg

An uptick in volumes responsible for this bid in GBP; GBP futures see near 1,200 contracts trade inside the past three minutes (cash equivalent of over $90mln) for the best volumes of the day so far.

• This tips GBP/USD within range of the Friday high of 1.3475 - the next notable upside level. GBP now among the best performers in G10, but GBP/JPY still trades lower.
• Rate appears to be building a base at the mid-July pullback lows of 1.3365 after last week's data which - while not ruling out an August BoE rate cut - has dented the pricing for sequential cuts later this year.
• Prelim PMI data due Thursday is the calendar highlight, but broader focus remains on the state of public finances as the Chancellor's revenue raising options continue to dwindle: The Times write this morning that Reeves is to defy calls from some party members to institute a wealth tax - deeming the option as unworkable.

• The ONS has confirmed that the first TLFS survey took place earlier this month with a wave 1 sample size of 90,000 (note that there are 5 waves that make up the labour market data with households in each wave surveyed quarterly 5 times - once in each wave).
• Amongst the changes to the survey are the ability to complete it online and links via a QR code - which have pilots have shown "increased completion on mobile devices, particularly among younger respondents."
• The timings for the transition to TLFS haven't been updated since the last update in April (which is a positive after many times being pushed back):
  • "The timing of transition to the TLFS remains an evidence-led decision, with a readiness assessment conducted in collaboration with our main users scheduled for July 2026."
  • "We aim to transition to our published headline labour market statistics in November 2026, although this may extend into 2027 if our (or users’) assessment of quality requires more data to be collected and assessed."
• The full ONS release is available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/labourmarkettransformationupdateonprogressandplansjuly2025