MEXICO: Better-Than-Expected Oct IP Data, Manufacturing Disappoints
Dec-12 12:02
* "*MEXICO OCT. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 0.7% M/M; EST. +0.1%" - BBG * "*MEXICO OCT. INDUSTRIAL P...
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MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +0.6% SA THRU NOV 07 WK
Nov-12 12:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +0.6% SA THRU NOV 07 WK
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Gold Remains Intact
Nov-12 11:58
- On the commodity front, the downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest the correction is over. Price remains above a key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3899.3. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.
- The pullback in WTI futures since Oct 24, appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that an upward corrective cycle is intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.85, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
US TSYS: TYA Hovering Close To Tuesday’s Latest Test Of Key Resistance
Nov-12 11:57
- Cash Treasuries have modestly pared sizeable gains seen with the Asia open after yesterday’s cash closure for Veterans Day, catching up with a rally in futures on soft weekly ADP employment data.
- Today sees focus on Tsy Sec Bessent speaking at the 2025 Treasury Market Conference, balance sheet discussions from Fed speakers and 10Y supply.
- Tomorrow could then greater focus on potential timing of official data releases that have been delayed under the government shutdown. See the MNI Re-Opening Guide here.
- Cash yields are 1-3.5bp lower since Monday’s close, with declines led by 5s.
- TYZ5 trades at 112-28+, holding only a mild easing away from yesterday’s high of 113-02 on light overnight volumes of 225k.
- That high marked another test of key near-term resistance having also hit 113-02 on Nov 5 & 7, after which lies 113-18+ (Oct 28 high). A bear threat is still present at 112-06 (Sep 25 low) before which lies 112-09+ (Nov 5 high) and other support levels.
- Data: MBA mortgage applications (0700ET)
- Fedspeak: Williams (0920ET), Paulson (1000ET), Waller (1020ET), Bostic (1215ET), Miran (1230ET), SOMA Manager Perli (1550ET), Collins (1600ET) – see FED bullet
- US Tsy Sec Bessent speaks at 2025 Treasury Market Conference (1045ET)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $42B 10Y Note - 91282CPJ4 (1300ET). The first auction of the week, a 3Y, stopped through by 1bp and saw healthy demand whlist last month’s 10Y tailed by 0.5bp with the bid-to-cover falling from 2.65 to 2.45.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
- Politics: White House Press Sec Leavitt conference (1300ET), Trump hosts private dinner (1930ET)
