USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4031 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
• PRICE: 1.3931 @ 08:02 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD maintains a firmer short-term tone. Despite the latest gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the move higher is considered corrective. A fresh cycle low last week reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4031, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6474 @ 07:58 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 0.6349 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Tuesday’s strong gains signal the end of the corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6349, the 50-day EMA.

• MNI: SPAIN APR HICP +0.6% M/M, +2.2% Y/Y