USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 1.4192 @ 16:20 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD is trading closer to recent lows. The pair has cleared key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. This strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension of the current bear cycle - a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early bullish reversal signal.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4485 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 1.4467 @ 20:13 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 1.4364/4302 20-day EMA / Low Jan 15
- SUP 2: 1.4280 Low Jan 6
- SUP 3: 1.4216 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
The trend in USDCAD remains bullish and recent short-term weakness has proved to be corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Friday’s gains expose 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4352, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 1.4216, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook Intact
- RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 3: 1.2597 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.2398 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2322 High Jan 10
- PRICE: 1.2174 @ 19:17 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend direction in GBPUSD remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2398, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6302/41 High Jan 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6233/47 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 0.6199 @ 20:07 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6179, the Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 0.6100 handle next. Initial firm resistance is 0.6233, 20-day EMA (pierced). The 50-day EMA is at 0.6346.
