USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 148.78/149.12 High Aug 22 / 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 147.09 @ 07:01 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
- SUP 4: 144.91 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
USDJPY continues to trade inside a range and a bear threat remains present. The short-term bear trigger lies at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. Key resistance is far off at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.
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EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 171.66 @ 06:55 BST Jul 29
- SUP 1: 171.53 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.81 Low Jul 11
- SUP 3: 169.77 Low Jul 7
- SUP 4: 168.89 50-day EMA
The bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact, and for now a pullback is considered corrective. Initial support to watch lies at 171.53, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction and highlight potential for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 168.89. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of Monday's 173.97 high would resume the bull cycle.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Germany and Italy look to hold auctions today and tomorrow respectively while Belgium is due to hold an ORI and already held a conventional auction. We pencil in issuance of E17.0bln in the week, up from last week’s E10.8bln.
- Germany will come to the market today to look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25059).
- Italy tomorrow will hold a 5/10-year BTP /CCTeu auction, selling E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.35% Apr-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005383309), E1.5-2.0bln of the 2.70% Oct-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005654642), E3.0-3.5bln of the 3.60% Oct-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005648149) and E1.5-2.0bln of the 1.05% Apr-34 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005652828).
- Belgium will come to the market on Friday with ORI Facility with details to be confirmed the preceding day.
