USDCAD TECHS: Bear Theme Intact
* RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28 * RES 3: 1.3937 50-day EMA * RES 2: 1.3892 20-day EMA * RES 1: 1.3823 Hi...
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USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Short-Term Theme
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4140/66 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
- RES 1: 1.4057 High Nov 10
- PRICE: 1.4017 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 1.3985 Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 1.3965 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3889 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 4: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support
A S/T bear theme in USDCAD remains intact following recent weakness. Price action is trading inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The top of the channel - currently at 1.4166 - provided a firm resistance on Nov 11, highlighting scope for a bear extension towards the base of the channel at 1.3889. Initial key support to watch is 1.3965, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a break of the channel top would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
STIR: Backloaded Calendar Headlined By EZ Flash PMIs
This week’s Eurozone calendar is backloaded, with November flash PMIs and Q3 negotiated wages due on Friday. The PMIs will be most important for the front-end, with the implied probability of another rate cut this cycle having steadily fallen in recent weeks. ECB-dated OIS currently price 7.5bps of easing through July 2026.
- While the median Governing council member has indicated that inflation risks are balanced, Bank of Finland Governor Rehn continues to hold a slightly more dovish view. He said on Friday that “low energy prices, a stronger euro, and easing wage and services inflation pose a risk that total inflation slows excessively relative to our 2% target.”
- We consider Rehn to be an influential member of the Governing Council – more so after he announced he would run for ECB Vice Presidency next year.
- Elsewhere, Dutch CB Governor Sleijpen spoke to the FT about Stablecoins. His rhetoric around near-term monetary policy was unchanged: Monetary policy is now in a “slightly better place” since June, with growth resilient and inflation risks balanced.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Dec-25 | 1.928 | -0.3 |
| Feb-26 | 1.919 | -1.2 |
| Mar-26 | 1.892 | -3.9 |
| Apr-26 | 1.884 | -4.7 |
| Jun-26 | 1.859 | -7.2 |
| Jul-26 | 1.856 | -7.6 |
| Sep-26 | 1.857 | -7.4 |
| Oct-26 | 1.867 | -6.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
AUDUSD TECHS: Shooting Star Candle Highlights A Reversal
- RES 4: 0.6648 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
- RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6580 High Nov 13
- PRICE: 0.6535 @ 09:03 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
- SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
AUDUSD continues to trade below last week's high. Recent gains undermine a bearish theme, however, note that last Thursday’s activity also highlights a potential bearish reversal signal - a shooting star (inverted hammer) candle. Key short-term pivot resistance has been defined at 0.6580, the Nov 13 high. A break of this level would cancel the candle pattern. A sell-off would instead expose 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.
