USDCAD TECHS: Bear Leg Remains Intact

• RES 4: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance      
• RES 3: 5742.40 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg
• RES 2: 5691.30 61.8% retracement of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg  
• RES 1: 5688.00 High Nov 28          
• PRICE: 5657.00 @ 06:33 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 5602.97/5475.00 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and bear trigger     
• SUP 2: 5427.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 5383.00 Low Sep 18 
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17      

The move higher in EUROSTOXX 50 futures last week undermines a recent bearish theme and the contract is holding on to most of its gains. Price has traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a stronger recovery near-term. A continuation would open 5691.30 and 5742.40, Fibonacci retracement points. For bears, a reversal lower would instead expose the key S/T support and bear trigger at 5475.00, the Nov 21 low.

The EU, Germany, Spain and France will all look to hold auctions this week while Belgium will continue to sell its retail Bons d’Etat. We pencil in issuance of E18.6bln for the week (ex retail), down from E25.3bln last week. We also see the potential for another Italian buyback, but do not include that in our central expectation.

See the full document here for a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance and a recap of last week.

• The EU will kick off issuance for the week today with its final EU-bond auction of 2025, with up to E2bln of the 0% Oct-28 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3KWCF4), up to E2bln of the 2.75% Dec-32 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A4ED0K0), and up to E1bln of the 0.45% Jul-41 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3KT6B1) on offer.
• Germany will draw its 2025 capital markets issuance to a close tomorrow with E4.5bln of the 2.00% Dec-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22114) on offer.
• Spain will then hold its final auction of the year on Thursday to hold a Bono/Obli/ObliEi auction. The 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00), the 0.85% Jul-37 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012I24) and the 1.15% Nov-36 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012O18) will be on offer. We pencil in a maximum nominal issuance of around E3-4bln with the target range for the 1.15% Nov-36 Obli-Ei likely E250-750mln. The auction size will be announced today.
• France will also conclude its issuance for the year on Thursday with a LT OAT auction (despite being eligible to sell MT/LT/IL OATs in the last auction of the year). On offer will be a combined E3.5-5.5bln of the 4.75% Apr-35 OAT (ISIN: FR0010070060), the 0.50% May-40 OAT (ISIN: FR0013515806), the 4.50% Apr-41 OAT (ISIN: FR0010773192) and the 3.25% May-55 OAT (ISIN: FR001400OHF4).

Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, the ESM, Greece and the EU are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E29.3bln in first round operations, up from E21.2bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 3-month Mar 18, 2026 Bubill and E3bln of the 9-month Sep 16, 2026 Bubill.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 4-month Mar 30, 2026 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the new 6-month May 28, 2026 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to a combined E7.3bln of 13/26/52-week BTFs: E3.0-3.4bln of the 13-week Mar 4, 2026 BTF, E1.4-1.8bln of the 26-week Jun 3, 2026 BTF and E1.7-2.1bln of the new 52-week Dec 2, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Spain will look to sell the 6-month Jun 5, 2026 letras and the new 12-month Dec 4, 2026 letras. The auction size will be announced today.
• Also tomorrow morning, Belgium will look to sell a combined E2.6-3.0bln of the following TCs: An indicative E1.0bln of the 3-month Mar 12, 2026 TC, an indicative E1.0bln of the 6-month Jun 11, 2026 TC and an indicative E1.0bln of the 11-month Nov 12, 2026 TC.
• Tomorrow, the ESM will look to come to the market with up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Mar 5, 2026 bills.
• On Wednesday morning, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 52-week Dec 4, 26 GTB.
• Finally on Wednesday, the EU will look to issue up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Mar 6, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Jun 5, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Dec 4, 2026 EU-bill. Note that the December 17 EU-bill auction has been cancelled.