USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 3: 1.3931 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3882 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3823 High Dec 11
- PRICE: 1.3775 @ 08:14 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Sep17
- SUP 2: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
- SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact, reinforced by the recent bearish extension. The move down maintains the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for a test of 1.3727 next, the Sep 17 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3892, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind.
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EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 2.50% Oct-30 EU-bond tap
- Guidance: MS + 15bps area
- Tap Size: E5bln (WNG) (MNI expected E5-6bln)
- Settlement: 25 Nov 2025 (T+5)
- Maturity: 14 October 2030
- ISIN: EU000A4EG021 (immediately fungible)
- JLMs: GSBE SE / HSBC / J.P. Morgan (DM/B&D) / Natixis / UBS
- Timing: Books open, today’s business
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6525/6580 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
- PRICE: 0.6492 @ 08:05 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
- SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
A sharp move down this week so far, in AUDUSD, highlights a clear bear threat. This also reinforces a short-term bearish signal on Nov 13 - a shooting star (inverted hammer) candle formation. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term pivot resistance has been defined at 0.6580, the Nov 13 high. A continued sell-off would expose 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.
US TSY OPTIONS: TYFG6 114.50 Calls Lifted
TYF6 114.50 calls 3K trades at 0-17, initial activity was buyer initiated.
