FRANCE: Bayrou Faces 1 July Censure Motion, But Main Threat Comes In Autumn
Prime Minister Francois Bayrou and his government face a motion of no confidence in the National Assembly on 1 July after the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) put forward the measure over the breakdown in talks over controversial pension reforms pushed through by President Emmanuel Macron in 2023. Bayrou is set to survive the vote, with the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) having said they will abstain, denying the PS and other parties of the left the requisite majority to remove Bayrou. No set time for the censure motion yet, but debate on the Dec 2024 motion got underway ~16:00CET.
- All of the parties and groups that formed the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance in the 2024 legislative election (PS, the environmentalist Ecologist Group, the communist Democratic and Republican Left group, and the far-left populist La France Insoumise (LFI, France Unbowed)) vote against Bayrou they would fall short of the 289 required for a majority. Even if the regionalist Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) group and the non-inscrits vote against Bayrou en masse, the group would only hold 226 votes.
- Leader of the RN in the National Assembly Marine Le Pen said in an interview with Valeurs actuelles that "The first options raised by Mr Bayrou for his next budget make me think that he is taking the same path as his predecessor,". Le Pen is referring to Michel Barnier, whom the NFP and RN both voted to oust in a December 2024 censure motion, with the threat that Bayrou could face the same fate come autumn budget talks.
Chart 1. Potential Backers of Censure Motion Against PM Bayrou, Seats
Source: Le Monde, MNI
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact For Now
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.745 @ 14:57 BST May 30
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures rallied well on the RBA rate decision last week, reversing a small part of recent weakness. Recent price action pressured prices through to new pullback lows last week. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition. To the upside, a recovery of recent losses would shift attention to resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.
US-JAPAN: Trump To Deliver Remarks On Nippon Steel-US Steel Deal Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver remarks in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, where he is expected to endorse Nippon Steel's takeover of US Steel. LIVESTREAM The announcement comes as the US and Japan remain far apart on a new bilateral trade deal.
- Trump said in a Truth Social message on May 23 that the planned partnership "will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy," over the next 14 months.
- Semafor writes: “The US government will get a “golden share” in US Steel …, with the power to determine who sits on the board and control over production levels. It’s a dramatic provision that could lay out a roadmap for how deals get done in the Trump administration.”
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba yesterday “expressed determination today to defend rules-based, free and multilateral trade systems and work on expanding the main Asia-Pacific trade group”, per AP.
- Ishiba said: “High tariffs will not bring economic prosperity. A prosperity built on sacrifices by someone or another country will not make a strong economy.”
- AP notes: “His comment comes as Japan’s chief tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa travels to Washington, D.C., for a fourth round of talks aiming to convince the U.S. to drop all recent tariff measures. So far Japan has not been successful in gaining U.S. concessions and is reportedly considering purchases of more U.S. farm products and defense equipment as bargaining chips.”
- Ishiba said after a call with Trump yesterday, “[we now] deeper understanding about each other,” but noted to reporters there has been no change to Japan’s position on the tariffs.
MACRO OUTLOOK: MNI US Macro Weekly: Jury’s Still Out On Q2 Downturn
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While the past week may be remembered for court decisions suspending the majority of the White House’s tariffs, it also brought further data evidence that the US economy did not fall off a cliff at the start of Q2.
- Consumer surveys (UMichigan, Conference Board) showed a downtick in consumer inflation expectations and improved sentiment, reflecting the US-China trade de-escalation on May 12.
- And while updated GDP data showed downwardly revised Q1 domestic demand, April personal consumption slowed but remained positive as underlying income growth remained solid.
- Likewise, though core durable goods orders retreated from Q1, a clear dropoff at the start of Q2 was not in full evidence. Regional Fed surveys signaled that activity stabilized in April-May, albeit at relatively weak levels, and labor market data pointed to incremental rather than sharp weakness.
- The point was underlined by the Atlanta Fed's nowcast for Q2 GDP growth which jumped to 3.84% on Friday from 2.18% in its May 27 update. Even if dramatic upgrade was due to a lower trade deficit in April as tariff front-running reversed, final domestic demand is still expected to be robust overall.
- Of course, things can change quickly: note Friday’s apparent re-escalation in US-China trade tensions and the temporary nature of the judicial tariff freeze (which in any case looks to be circumvented by the Trump administration), as well as the July “reciprocal” tariff negotiation deadline continuing to loom large.
- For the moment though, while uncertainty looks to be a constant, the data aren’t (yet) showing the degree of deterioration that had until recently been feared.
- Next week’s data highlights include key checkpoints for May, including ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys (which look likely to show some recovery versus April) and the US Employment report.
- Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to moderate in May after a surprisingly robust 177k in April, with consensus currently around the 130k mark. The unemployment rate meanwhile is seen holding at 4.2% for what would be a third consecutive month.
