MEXICO: Banxico Minutes Due Tomorrow

• RES 4: 112-15   61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 111-13+/111-28 High Jul 10 / High Jul 3 
• RES 1: 111-09+   High Jul 21  
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-08+ @ 17:16 BST Jul 21
• SUP 1: 110-08+ Low Jul 14 & 16        
• SUP 2: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11
• SUP 4: 109.25   Low May 27

Treasury futures have started the week on a firmer note, extending the recovery that began on Jul 15. The move higher has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, strengthening the recovery, and this has exposed resistance at 111-13+, the Jul 10 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. Key support lies at 110-08+, the low on Jul 14 and 16. A break of this support would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

MEF has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction this Thursday, July 24. 

• E2.25-2.75bln of the 2.10% Aug-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005657330)
• E1.25-1.50bn of the 1.10% Aug-31 BTP€i 5 Years (ISIN: IT0005657348)

House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) narrow majority in the House of Representatives has shrunk slightly with the resignation of Rep Mark Green (R-TN). The new balance in the House is 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats. The date of a special election to fill Green's seat will be determined by Tennessee Governor Bill Lee (R-TN), who is likely to schedule the election in the solid red seat to take place as soon as possible.  

• The new balance means that Johnson can only drop three votes on any piece of legislation, if all members are present and voting.
• With Green's retirement, there are now four vacant seats following the deaths in office of three Democrat Congressmen: Jerry Connolly, Raúl Grijalva, and Sylvester Turner. Special elections to fill the three seats will take place in Connolly's former Virginia 11th District seat on September 9, Grijalva's former Arizona 7th District seat on September 23, and Turner's former Texas 18th District seat on November 4.
• CBS notes that Green said earlier this month, when announcing his resignation, he was returning to the private sector to start his own business, but did not provide details about the business.