ENERGY: Baker Hughes Regional Update – Week of September 19th

• Still comfortably bid, Treasuries pare gains slightly after the July FOMC minutes showed almost all wanted to keep rates steady.
• Tsy Sep 10Y contract trades at 111-29.5 vs. 112-00.5 high, 10Y yield taps 4.2829%.
• Initial technical support well below at 111-11 (50-day EMA); resistance above at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger).
• Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.489 at 54.121, 5s30s +.472 at 108.714.

• MNI: ALMOST ALL WANTED TO HOLD STEADY IN JULY - MINUTES
• FED: MAJORITY JUDGED RISK TO INFLATION AS GREATER RISK
• FED: SEVERAL SAW INFLATION, LABOR RISKS ROUGHLY BALANCED
• FED: 'COUPLE' CONSIDERED EMPLOYMENT MORE SALIENT RISK
• FED CLOSE TO FINALIZING CHANGES TO CONSENSUS STATEMENT
• FED: MARKET INDICATORS SUGGEST RESERVES REMAINED ABUNDANT
• FED: STAFF TO MONITOR RESERVE CONDITIONS CLOSELY

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28  
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8  
• RES 1: 0.8650 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8657 @ 16:15 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP traded higher into the close. A reversal higher from here would refocus attention on key resistance and bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Recent weakness, however, resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low. Note too that the cross has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8616. A continuation lower would strengthen a bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point.