ITALY DATA: August Services/Composite PMI: Still Expansionary But Momentum Slows

Sep-03 07:55

In a similar fashion to Spain, the Italian August services PMI was somewhat weaker-than-expected, but still expansionary, at 51.5 (vs 52.1 cons, 52,3 prior). The composite reading was above 50 for the seventh consecutive month at 51.7 (vs 51.6 cons, 51.5 prior).  

The details of the report point to weakening momentum amongst services producers in August, with growth still supported by domestic markets. Despite a rise in input costs, the report noted limited passthrough into output charges.

Key notes from the release:

  • “Where panel members saw growth in output, they attributed this to recent new customer introductions and order inflows. The upturn was reportedly curbed by challenging economic conditions, however.”
  • “As has been the case since February, the sustained upturn in new orders remained bolstered by the domestic economy, as export sales fell again in August.”
  • “Service providers continued to add to their payroll numbers midway through the third quarter.”…“ The rate of workforce expansion was the least marked in four months”
  • “Despite a stronger influx of new orders, prices charged for the provision of Italian services rose to the weakest extent in nine months in August. With only 7% of firms hiking their rates, the overall rate of charge inflation was only modest overall.”
  • “In contrast, input costs rose at a sharper pace on the month. The rate of inflation was both rapid and historically elevated, though it was softer than those seen earlier in the year.”
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Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Indices are pulling away from Friday's lows

Aug-04 07:46
  • European and US Equities are pulling away from Friday's lows, the Estoxx futures plummeted 5% from just Thursday's high to Friday's low, VGU5 is now up 0.77%.
  • Looking at a Micro level, the Index is close to where it was trading at pre NFP, although we noted at the time of the Employment release the surprising lack of moves in Equities versus what was witnessed in Bonds, Rates and FX.
  • This was most likely because of the already big sell off seen in Equities since Thursday into Friday's Data.
  • VGU5 was trading at 5234.00, which is right here, and for the US Emini, it was trading at 6320.00, but fell 3.54% from last Thursday's high at 6468.50.

SWITZERLAND DATA: Transport Services Dragged Up July CPI Print

Aug-04 07:25

Looking at the details of the Swiss CPI print, upside momentum from transport and recreation categories stands out (contributing a combined 0.21pp more than in June). Overall it remains that this was the second consecutive positive print in Swiss CPI.
⦁ Transport services (airfares but also "public transport abroad" in particular) and package holidays (part of recreation category) were behind the acceleration here, having seen higher Y/Y prints this time - that might help explain parts of the unusual higher services / imported inflation combination.
⦁ Food inflation meanwhile has fallen this time, contributing 0.06pp less than in June.
⦁ Further details see table / chart below:

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EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put Fly Buyer

Aug-04 07:24

RXU5 128.5/127.5/126.5p fly, bought for 11 in 6.5k.