FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Auction Cancellation

Looking into the details of the final Eurozone HICP print:

• The services increase in October from 3.24% to 3.36%Y/Y was largely due to services related to transport (as we expected) with that category rising from 3.32%Y/Y to 3.89%Y/Y. Air fares rose from -1.95%Y/Y in September to +1.66%Y/Y in October. Part of that stems for a soft September print, but there is also a strong October print in there that may well be partially reversed in November.
• Services related to communication also picked up from -0.10%Y/Y in September to +0.64%Y/Y in October - that has picked up from -1.70%Y/Y in August, so appear to be showing some more normalisation and we wouldn't really expect this to be reversed.
• Other services categories were broadly in line with their September Y/Y values. Package holidays doesn't look like a big contributor to the overall increase despite having picked up in some of the national prints. Some of the strength in accommodation seen in September was less pronounced in October.
• Clothing and footwear has reverted back to +0.62%Y/Y from the 1.08%Y/Y print seen in September and is now closer to the +0.53%Y/Y print seen in August. That, along with some softness in new motor sales, appears to be the largest single driver of the slowdown in NEIG (core goods) from 0.79%Y/Y in September to 0.62%Y/Y in October.

• USDJPY rises through yesterday's highs to hit a new cycle high on Finance minister Katayama possibly suggesting JPY weakness is not the highest priority, saying she "did not specifically talk about FX" in today's meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda.
• Price action takes the pair above 155.89, the Feb 3 high, while more meaningful resistance is seen at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. For EURJPY, targets rely on technical projections, with 180.37, 181.01 and 181.70 the next levels of note based on the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing.
• The likes of AUD (-0.35%) and NZD (-0.49%) are underperforming on the session, amid the ongoing concerns for risk and major equity indices consolidating near recent lows. Recent weakness in AUDUSD highlights a clear bear threat, reinforcing a short-term bearish signal on Nov 13 - a shooting star (inverted hammer) candle formation. NZDUSD cycle lows are located at 0.5606.
• UK CPI printed roughly in line with expectations, which may lower the bar for a December cut a touch, however, overall the print should not have much of an impact for policy over the medium term. While the BoE will get the next round of CPI data under embargo on the Monday before the next meeting, the main risk event for BoE policy ahead continues to be next week's budget.
• Moving average studies in GBPUSD remain in a bear-mode condition and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger remains at 1.3010, the Nov 4 and 5 low. Key short-term resistance for the pair meanwhile stands at the 1.3198 20-day EMA.
• Nvidia earnings incl. guidance have the potential for an impact on FX, especially given recent caution around AI valuations. Fed's Logan, Miran, Barkin, and Williams are on the calendar, alongside the October FOMC minutes. US September Payrolls will headline Thursday.

WTI futures are trading in a range. A sell-off on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction. The downleg in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. With the metal retracing off last week’s high, the key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3937.4. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.

• WTI Crude  down $0.23 or -0.38% at $60.51
• Natural Gas up $0.03 or +0.78% at $4.405
• Gold spot up $46.31 or +1.14% at $4112.97
• Copper up $4 or +0.79% at $509.2
• Silver up $1.52 or +2.99% at $52.2174
• Platinum up $39.55 or +2.58% at $1572.27