EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: Arkema: Q3 Results Headlines
(AKEFP; Baa1/BBB+/NR)
Cut guidance. Margins falling in a weak overall market. Cost cutting and working capital management enabled debt to fall.
- Revenue €2,187m -4.7% CER but a slight beat vs consensus.
- EBITDA €310m -24% y/y was as expected.
- Margin 14.2% vs 17% in 3Q24.
- Net debt fell by €177m on the quarter.
- The company reports ~20% y/y sales growth in innovative products. No absolute numbers given on this.
- Guidance reduced. FY EBITDA €1.25-€1.3bn from €1.3-€1.4bn range. Recurring cash flow ~€300m from €300-€400m range.
- Cost-cutting will increase with CAPEX reduced to €600m in 2026. This is €50m lower vs 2025 and €150m vs 2024.
- Arkema issued €500m in September and refinanced the upcoming Hybrid in May.
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STIR: Less Than 20% Odds Of BoE Cut Priced Through Dec
Firmer core global FI markets don’t have much impact on GBP STIRs.
- SONIA futures -0.5 to +1.5. September’s low in SFIZ5 remains intact, while SFIZ6 is 4.0 off its own September low.
- BoE-dated OIS prices just over 4bp of easing through year-end. We continue to believe that markets are underestimating the chances of a Q4 rate cut.
- The next 25bp move is not fully discounted until the end of the April meeting
- Comments from BoE chief economist Pill are due this afternoon (16:00 London).
- Pill will speak at the Maxwell Fry Annual Lecture at the University of Birmingham. We do not know the subject of the address.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Nov-25 | 3.960 | -0.8 |
Dec-25 | 3.924 | -4.3 |
Feb-26 | 3.820 | -14.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.787 | -18.0 |
Apr-26 | 3.710 | -25.7 |
Jun-26 | 3.687 | -28.0 |
Jul-26 | 3.638 | -32.9 |
Sep-26 | 3.627 | -34.0 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6802.75 High Oct 7
- PRICE: 6761.50 @ 07:31 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 6700.59 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6624.25 Low Sep 25
- SUP 3: 6582.78 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and the direction remains up. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm a continuation of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6700.59. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
USD: A busy session for the Kiwi and the Yen
- The US Dollar is in the Green against all the majors, and the immediate focus will be on the Kiwi following the surprised 50bps cut from the RBNZ.
- The NZDUSD is down over 1%, exchanges hands at its lowest level since April and is now eyeing a test towards the next support at 0.5728, the 61.8% retracement of the April/July range.
- We highlighted for the past few risk to the AUDNZD cross, with a target of 1.1500, so far the AUDNZD has printed a 1.1446 high, but market participants will have their Eyes at that 1.1491 (2022 high) 1.1500 area.
- The Yen remains the big focus nonetheless, USDJPY spiked to its highest level since February as Traders push back on earlier Rate Hike from the BoJ.
- Aside from today's printed high of 152.64, the next resistance in USDJPY is at 153.15 (14 Feb high).
- The Chart to watch of late has been the EURJPY, this cross printed a new record high, since the EUR Inception, but just fell short of the next level seen at 177.67 1.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing.
- EURJPY printed a intraday high at 177.46, but has fallen back to 177.00 at the Time of Typing.
