MEXICO: April Inflation Data a Touch Above Expectations

2.625% Jul-28 EU-bond (EU000A4D5QM6)

• Reoffer: 101.052 to yield 2.283%
• Spread earlier set at MS+14bps (Guidance was MS+15 bps area)
• Size confirmed at E5bln (MNI had expected E4-6bln)
• Books closed in excess of E41bln (in E5.5bln JLM interest)
• HR 106% vs 2.40% Apr-28 Bobl +31.1bp

2.50% Oct-52 EU-bond (EU000A3K4DT4)

• Reoffer: 77.217 to yield 3.859%
• Spread set at MS+126bps (Guidance was MS+128 bps area
• Size: E3bln versus guidance of E2bln (MNI had expected E4-6bln)
• Books closed in excess of E45bln (in E5bln JLM interest)
• HR 119% vs 0% Aug-52 Bund + 86.1bp

For both:

• Settlement: 15 April 2025 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, J.P. Morgan, Natixis and Nomura (DM/B&D)
• Timing: TOE 12:39BST / 13:39CET. FTT immediately

From market source

• Risk-on tone gathering some momentum in the last couple minutes -- no obvious headline trigger, however, as Tsys extend lows with TYM5 marking 111-19 (-15), just above initial technical support at 111-15.5 (Low Apr 7), while stocks extend recent highs -- SPX emini climb to 5224.75 high, 5208.75 last (+111.5).
• Cross asset, Gold back over 3,000 at 3009.5 last, Crude makes mild gain (WTI +.30 at 61.0), Bbg US$ index -3.22 at 1268.34.

• In the FI space, a bull cycle in Bund futures traded in a volatile manner Monday. For now, a bull cycle remains in play and a pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high yesterday signals scope for a continuation of the uptrend. The contract has cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This strengthens the bullish condition and opens 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 129.15, the 20-day EMA.
• A sharp sell-off in the Gilt futures contract highlights a strong reversal of the recent bull cycle between Mar 27 - Apr 7. A continuation down would expose the next key support located at 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. On the upside, a resumption of gains would initially open 92.70 and 93.38, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 high-low range.