JAPAN DATA: April Data Still Points To Tight Labor Market
Japan's April jobless rate printed at 2.5%, in line with the consensus and the March outcome. It was the same story for the job-to-applicant ratio, which came in at 1.26. The chart below plots the two series, with the job-to-applicant ratio inverted on the chart (the white line). The jobless rate is still close to recent cycle lows and suggesting a tight labor market. The job to applicant ratio is well off late 2022 highs but is not showing trend weakness either.
- The number of people employed fell by a further 40k m/m, but this was at a reduced pace of -80k seen in March. The participation rate edged up to 63.7% from 63.3%.
Fig 1: Japan Jobless Rate & Job-To-Applicant Ratio
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US: Trump Speech Covers Familiar Ground, Little Fresh Details On Trade Deals
US President Trump has spoken at a rally in Michigan, which marks his first 100 days in office. The speech was big on rhetoric, but policy related areas of interest for the market remained light.
- On monetary policy, Trump reiterated progress around lower food and energy inflation and that lower interest rates are good. He added he knows more about interest rates than Fed Chair Powell does.
- He also stated that tax cuts will be passed in the coming weeks/months.
- On trade/tariffs, he noted he had given flexibility for the auto sector (which appears to reflect recently announced shifts), but stated that auto-makers will be slaughtered if they don't onshore production.
- On trade deals he stated that officials from India, France and China are coming to make deals, but didn't provide any more details than that. He added that if negotiations take too long then the US will set the tariff rate.
- He also emphasized the previously announced investment pledges that tech companies have agreed to.
MNI: MNI JAPAN MAR RETAIL SALES +3.1% Y/Y; FEB +1.3%
- MNI JAPAN MAR RETAIL SALES +3.1% Y/Y; FEB +1.3%
- JAPAN MARCH RETAIL SALES -1.2% M/M; FEB +0.4%
MNI: MNI JAPAN MAR FACTORY OUTPUT -1.1% M/M; FEB +2.3%
- MNI JAPAN MAR FACTORY OUTPUT -1.1% M/M; FEB +2.3%
- JAPAN MAR FACTORY OUTPUT POST 1ST M/M DROP IN 2 MONTHS
