USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 157.87 High Jan 10
• RES 3: 157.27 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 157.24 2.382 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 1: 156.80 High Nov 19
• PRICE: 156.79 @ 17:25 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: 153.68 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7   
• SUP 3: 151.74 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

USDJPY rallied again Wednesday, topping several resistance levels to extend the bull run. This also confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 157.24 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 153.68, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average is required to signal scope for a corrective pullback.    

The biggest anticipated focus in the October FOMC meeting minutes (link) was on the degree to which support for a December cut was signaled. In short, the minutes suggest that it may only be a minority of the Committee that is pushing for a follow-up cut. 

• That's largely in line with MNI's view that a majority of the broader Committee may be leaning to a December hold based on post-October FOMC commentary, though it doesn't necessarily mean that would-be cutters in December make up a majority of the 12-member voting contingent. (Below is a crib sheet on what "many" vs "several" means in the FOMC minutes - especially useful in this edition - from a guide published by the Fed Board staff).
• First off, this passage makes it pretty clear it was hardly an overwhelming majority of the 19 participants who supported an October cut, and in fact it may well have been a minority:
• "Many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, some supported such a decision but could have also supported maintaining the level of the target range, and several were against lowering the target range."
• Recall that "many" is technically considered to be less than a "majority/most" members when it comes to Fedspeak.
• Here's what it says about December. Note that while "most" saw future cuts as appropriate, "several" of them didn't see another 25bp cut at the December meeting. And the "several" that saw a December cut is possibly less than "many" or "some", per Fedspeak parlance - indeed it's indicated to be fewer than the "many" who thought it would likely be appropriate to hold through yearend.
• "Participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the Committee's December meeting. Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate as the Committee moved to a more neutral policy stance over time, although several of these participants indicated that they did not necessarily view another 25 basis point reduction as likely to be appropriate at the December meeting. Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period. Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year. All participants agreed that monetary policy was not on a preset course and would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks."

• Treasuries pared gains then rebound - still hold to narrow range after the October FOMC minutes showed "strongly differed" rate cut opinions.
• Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +2 at 112-27 (112-29 high). Resistance above at the 113-02 level in Treasuries, an area of congestion since Nov 5, remains intact.
• A clear breach of this hurdle would be a bullish signal and suggest scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A breach would also cancel a short-term bearish theme. For bears, attention is on 112-10+, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support also lies at 112-06+.
• Bbg US$ index continues to climb: +5.68 at 1225.11; SPX eminis firmer: +18 at 6857.75 - eyes on Nvidia earnings after the close.