USDCAD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were set for an all-time high close Tuesday with gains of around 1%. The catalyst for the move was a July CPI report that kept the door wide open to the Fed resuming rate cuts in September.

• All main S&P 500 sectors were flat/higher, with communications (+1.8%) and info tech (+1.3%) leading the way.
• Airlines (Delta and United up 9-10%) gained after airfare CPI was shown up an unexpectedly high 4+% M/M, with semiconductor firms also performing well as markets digested a report by The Information that Chinese regulators ordered tech companies to suspend Nvidia chip imports.
• Latest levels: Dow Jones mini up 436 pts or +0.99% at 44529, S&P 500 mini up 62.75 pts or +0.98% at 6452.5, NASDAQ mini up 283.25 pts or +1.2% at 23864.75.

Tuesday's US rates/bond options flow included:

• SFRQ5 95.87/95.81ps, traded for 1.75 in 2k.
• SFRQ5 95.81/95.75ps 1x2, traded half in 4k.
• SFRU5 96.12/96.25cs, traded 1.5 in 5k.
• SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.25c fly, traded for half in 2k.
• SFRU5 95.87/95.81/95.75p ladder, traded half in 3k.
• SFRU5 95.8125 put, bought for 3.75 in 12.5k
• SFRU5 95.75/95.68ps 1x3, traded 0.75 in 2k.
• SFRU5 96.125/96.25 call spread bought for 1.375 in 45k
  SFRU5 95.75/95.62ps, traded 1.75 in 2k.
• SFRU5 96.12c, bought for 2 in 4k
• SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62c condor, bought for 3.5 in 5k.
• SFRM6 96.50p, bought for 21.5 in ~5k.
• SFRV5 96.1875/96.4375 call spread sold at 10s in 45.5k (block)
• 0QZ5 98.00c, bought for 2 in 11k
• TYX5 110.5 puts sold at 34 in ~9.8k (block)
   

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6541/6625 High Aug 7 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6521 @ 16:04 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. While support at 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has been cleared, the recovery in prices keeps key resistance in focus at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger. Any return lower would signal a bearish threat into 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.