USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Support
- RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 144.88/15.98 20- and 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 143.40 @ 07:10 BST May 23
- SUP 1: 142.81 Low May 22
- SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6
- SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
- SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
This week’s bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play. The move down signals scope for a continuation of the downleg and sights are on 142.36, the May 6 low. Note that the 20-day EMA, at 144.88, has been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. A breach of 142.36, would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance is 145.98, 50-day EMA.
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MNI: CORRECT: UK MAR CGNCR GBP21.05 BN
- CORRECT: UK MAR CGNCR GBP21.05 BN
UK DATA: CGNCR GBP7.9bln higher for FY24/25 - will lead into remit revision
- Central government net cash requirement (excluding UK Asset Resolution Ltd and Network Rail) was £21.1 billion in March 2025; this was £7.4 billion less than in March 2024, and brings the total for the FYE March 2025 to £180.5 billion, £7.9 billion more than forecast by the OBR.
- This is what feeds into the remit revision - so a slightly smaller remit revision is likely as this isn't quite as bad as expected (despite the accrual measures such as PSNBex coming in higher this month with an upward revision).
GILT TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 93.44 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off
- RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 92.63 High Apr 8
- PRICE: 92.44 @ Close Apr 22
- SUP 1: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15
- SUP 2: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9
- SUP 3: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
- SUP 4: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support (con)
A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures between Apr 7 - 9 continues to highlight a bearish threat and recent gains - for now - appear corrective. Resistance to watch is 92.63, the Apr 8 high. A break of this level would signal scope for stronger bounce and expose 93.44, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on 89.99, the Apr 9 low where a break would resume the downtrend.
