STIR: Another Hawkish Fed Pricing Adjustment After PMIs
Another hawkish adjustment in Fed pricing after the release of the firmer-than-expected flash S&P Global PMI surveys.
- Inflation comments added more rate to the release, with S&P noting that “tariffs were again widely cited as the principal cause of sharply higher costs, which in turn fed through to the steepest rise in average selling prices recorded over the past three years”.
- Dec FOMC-dated pricing stabilises around 50bp of cuts through December vs. ~52bp heading into the data, registering the shallowest level of cuts priced since the NFP release in the process.
- ~20bp of cuts still priced through Sep, with ~32.5bp showing through October.
- SOFR-implied terminal rate pricing at 3.11% vs. 3.08% pre-data.
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USDJPY TECHS: Correction Extends
- RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.18 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 146.51 @ 14:54 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 146.63/60 20-day EMA / intraday low
- SUP 2: 145.85 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 144.23 Low Jul 7
- SUP 4: 142.68 Low Jul 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback - a correction. Recent strength has resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, short-term pivot support to monitor is 145.85, the 50-day EMA.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 2Y Buy
- +9,000 TUU5 103-23.88, buy through 103-23.75 post time offer at 0946:19ET, DV01 $335,000.
- The 2Y contract trades 103-24 last +1.
CHINA-EU: Trade Comissioner-"Must Work Towards Balanced Partnership" w/China
(MNI) London - Reuters reports comments from European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic regarding the upcoming EU-China summit on 24 July. Says that the meeting "is an opportunity to discuss critical trade and investment issues," adding "We must work towards a more balanced partnership." The Trade Commissioner's comments echo those from a Commission official on 21 July, who claimed that "The present situation is unsustainable. We need rebalancing," adding that while a breakthrough at the summit is unlikely, it could be used to "develop a dialogue that will lead to solutions in the short, if not immediate term," (see 'MNI BRIEF: EU To Warn China Trade Situation Unsustainable', 21 July).
- As MNI's Policy team noted earlier, there is the likelihood of an agreement being announced on the green transition and climate change. However, the main focus will be on encouraging a shift in the trade relationship, as "EU representatives are expected to raise the current trade imbalance and the need to remove market access and regulatory barriers facing European firms operating in China" (see 'MNI BRIEF: China-EU Green Cooperation Announcement Expected', 22 July).
