CANADA: Analysts' July BOC Rate Cut Calls Revoked After Jobs Data

The below run rates highlight the sharp most recent cooling in core CPI trends, albeit with more measured six-month run rates. Core PCE implications will have to wait until after tomorrow's PPI release, with particular focus on portfolio management & investment advice after it tumbled in April (a strong bounce should be expected). 

Core CPI (SA)
% M/M: 0.13 in May'25 after 0.237 in Apr'25
% 3mth ar: 1.7 in May'25 after 2.1 in Apr'25
% 6mth ar: 2.7 in May'25 after 3 in Apr'25

CPI Core Services Non-Housing (SA)
% M/M: 0.061 in May'25 after 0.209 in Apr'25
% 3mth ar: 0.1 in May'25 after 0.8 in Apr'25
% 6mth ar: 2.5 in May'25 after 3.1 in Apr'25
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI

A CBS News/YouGov poll “completed just prior to Saturday's protests and events in Los Angeles”, found that 54% of voters approved of the Trump administration's program to deport immigrants illegally in the US. CBS added: “But if people don't think it is dangerous criminals who are the focus of the deportation effort, support drops dramatically.”

• White House communications director Steven Cheung tweeted in response that, "...the approval number will be even higher after the national guard was sent to LA to beat back the violence this weekend.”
• Axios writes: “President Trump undoubtedly stands on strong political ground, backed by most Americans, in cases where he's deporting convicted criminals… Now comes a new test… How comfortable are Americans with deporting millions of immigrants who paid taxes, built families and committed no crimes after coming here illegally?”
• Semafor writes: “A Democratic strategist argued Trump has already succeeded in diverting attention away from his feud with Elon Musk and the messy legislative debate over his spending package: “He wants to see people standing on top of burning cars, waving the Mexican flag — that’s the exact imagery that can help him overperform in the midterm elections.””

Figure 1: Trump Administration’s Programme to Deport Immigrants Illegally in the US

Source: CBS News/YouGov

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 06/11 $4.2B #Brown & Brown 6pt: $400M 1.5Y +65, $500M 3Y +80, $800M 5Y +92, $500M 7Y +107, $1B 10Y +117, $1B 30Y +135
• 06/11 $1.2B #Citadel Securities $700M 5Y +155, $500M 10Y +180
• 06/11 $700M Unisys 5.5NC2.5 roadshow
• Expected Thursday:
• 06/12 $Benchmark Export Development Canada (EDC) 5Y SOFR+45a