MEXICO: Analyst Views On Robust March Retail Sales Data
May-21 17:24
- Itaú says that today’s retail sales results were encouraging, reinforcing the view that private consumption started positively in 2025, with the QoQ/SAAR at 4.9% (up from 3.4% in the previous quarter), and a statistical carry-over of 2.0% for the year.
- Due to resilient consumption fundamentals, such as the growing real wage bill and still historically high consumer confidence, Itaú anticipates the sector to remain slightly positive in 2025. Additionally, they expect private consumption to be the main driver for GDP growth this year, despite their overall -0.5% GDP forecast.
- Meanwhile, Scotiabank says that the timing of Easter influenced the y/y gain, as workday-adjusted data show that retail sales climbed 2.6%. Given this, the next print will likely see a deceleration in simple headline terms. Nonetheless, for Q1 as a whole retail sales climbed by 2% y/y in non-seasonally adjusted terms, their best performance and first positive reading since 4Q23. In March, growth was driven primarily by online sales, which rose by which rose by 17.1% y/y.
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speakers, Richmond Fed Data, 2Y Note Sale
Apr-21 16:34
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 22-Apr 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-32.5, --)
- 22-Apr 0900 Fed Gov Jefferson, Economic Mobility Summit
- 22-Apr 0930 Philly Fed Harker, Economic Mobility Summit
- 22-Apr 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-4, -6)
- 22-Apr 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (-14, --)
- 22-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
- 22-Apr 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CMY4)
- 22-Apr 1340 MN Fed Kashkari Speaks moderated discussion
- 22-Apr 1430 Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat (no text, Q&A)
- 22-Apr 1800 Fed Gov Kugler on Mon/Pol Transmission (text, Q&A)
US TSY FUTURES: BLCK: Jun'25 5Y Buy
Apr-21 16:01
- +6,500 FVM5 108-16.25, buy through 108-15.75 post time offer at 1148:59ET, DV01 $267,000. The 5Y contract trades 108-15.75 last (+2.5)
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $5B Amex 4Pt Launched
Apr-21 15:57
Amex dropped the 6NC5 SOFR leg:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/21 $5B #American Express $1.6B 4NC3 +98, $400M 4NC3 SOFR+126, $1.5B 6NC5 +108, $1.5B 11NC10 +128
- 04/21 $700M Excelerate Energy 5NC2
- 04/21 $2B QXO Inc. 7NC3 investor calls
