EM LATAM CREDIT: America Movil: EUR 5Y - FV
(AMXLMM; Baa1/A-/A-)
IPTs 5Y EUR: MA+100bpA
FV 5Y EUR: MS+80bpA
• Mexico based Latin America focused telecom company America Movil has mandated investor meetings ahead of a potential Reg S EUR-denominated 5-year senior unsecured bond.
• AMXLMM EUR 2028s were last quoted at z-spread 33bp. We see AMXLMM May 30s in USD swapped back to EUR at 80bp and the AMXLMM 32s in USD swapped to EUR at 100bp.
• AMXLMM USD 30s are quoted about 12 bp wider than T-Mobile USA (TMUS; Baa2/BBBpos/BBB+) 30s. We interpolate a TMUS 5-year EUR at z-spread 65bp and add 12bp credit curve to estimate a z-spread 77 for a new AMXLMM 5-year in EUR.
• We also looked at TMUS 2030 USD notes swapped to EUR and get a spread over swaps of 72bp so the USD bonds were quoted a bit wider than the EUR interpolated level by 7bp.
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Historical bullets
CNH: TECHS: Approaching Key Support
- USDCNH is approaching a key support area highlighted by; 7.1441, the July 24 low and 7.1455, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the bull cycle between Sep 26 ‘24 and Apr 8.
- A clear breach of both price points would confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started on Apr 8.
- This would pave the way for an extension towards the 7.10 handle.
- Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend.
- Initial resistance to watch is 7.1869, the 50-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- PRICE: $38.924 @ 08:25 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: $37.229/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
- SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg
- SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2
Trend signals in Silver are unchanged and remain bullish. Prices have recently recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.229. A clear break of the average is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, the resumption of gains opens the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.
USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20
- RES 1: 1.3925 High Aug 22
- PRICE: 1.3829 @ 08:07 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: 1.3797 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3771/22 50-day EMA / Low Aug 22
- SUP 3: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
- SUP 4: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
Gains last week in USDCAD and the breach of resistance at 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, continues to highlight a bullish phase. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, strengthening the current uptrend. An extension higher would signal scope for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.3771, the 50-day EMA.
