MEXICO: Amador/Haddad Meeting, Sheinbaum Lofty Approval Ratings Persist
May-07 11:33
- USDMXN continues to operate within its newly established range between 19.50/75, following the significant range breakout in mid-April. A resumption of peso strength was helped on Tuesday by US President Trump providing a more optimistic tone regarding the USMCA, while speaking to reporters alongside Canadian PM Carney. Later in the day in Trump said he maintains a good relationship with President Sheinbaum.
- While the market continues to monitor trade talks between US/Mexican officials, it is worth noting that the Mexican Agriculture Minister said on Tuesday he reached agreements with U.S. counterpart in a "friendly" meeting in Washington and met with tomato industry executives. Separately, Finance Minister Amador will meet with his Brazilian counterpart at 1800BST(1300ET) today.
- President Sheinbaum remains a very popular leader, according to the results of two polls conducted in April. The latest El Financiero poll detected an 81% approval rating, while a much larger survey conducted by the Mitofsky polling company (for El Economista) registered a 70.2% approval rating.
- The domestic data calendar is empty today, which turns the focus to April CPI and consumer confidence data on Thursday. Separately, Mexico will sell the following later today:
- MXN1.5 Billion of 2028 floating IPAB bonds
- MXN1.5 billion of 2030 floating IPAB bonds
- MXN1.3 Billion of 2032 Floating IPAB bonds
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Key Resistance In Bunds Remains Exposed
Apr-07 11:28
- In the FI space, a bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh short-term cycle highs last week signal scope for a continuation of the uptrend. The contract has cleared 131.14, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. Clearance of this level strengthens the bullish condition and opens 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 129.02, the 20-day EMA.
- Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone despite today’s pullback. A key resistance at 93.79, the Mar 4 high, has recently been cleared and this has been followed by a move through the 94.00 handle. The breach signals scope for a climb towards 94.75, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg (cont). On the downside, initial support lies at 93.01, the Mar 20 high. A firmer support is seen at 92.13, the 20-day EMA.
GBP: Starmer Actions Add to Case For GBP Underperformance Through Tariffs
Apr-07 11:18
As markets consider the EU's retaliatory steps against the US, news this morning affirms that the UK are unlikely to meaningfully push back against US measures - an outcome that adds to the case for GBP underperformance through tariff uncertainty.
- UK PM Starmer announced that the "world has fundamentally changed" and has formally diluted electric vehicle targets for UK car production as well as potentially suggesting fiscal rules could be tweaked to combat an expected lower rate of growth. These policy actions stop well short of the Canadian, Chinese or likely EU response of counter-tariffs and restrictions - all of which carry an inflationary impulse.
- The contrasting official responses expose GBP here, suggesting inflationary pressure from UK countermeasures is low relative to the EU, and the argument for greater government support for businesses is more contained - leaving BoE pricing more subject to easing relative to the ECB.
- We noted above that EURGBP has cleared resistance to open 0.8645 and 0.8768 - meanwhile GBP/USD is meeting the 200-dma at typing (1.2813), to target 1.2784 and 1.2654, the 50% retracement for the YTD rally.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 5Y Buy
Apr-07 11:14
- +5,340 FVM5 109-20, post time offer at 0659:42ET, DV01 $220,000. The 5Y contract trades 109-18 last (+7.25).
