CANADA DATA: Although Monthly GDP Sees Waning Demand In October

The monthly production-based GDP data meanwhile weren't quite as robust as the quarterly expenditure data in Q3, although also helped by some sizeable upward revisions. The October advance estimate does however point to a sharper moderation ahead although the GDP data generally appear particularly prone to revisions currently. 

• As for the separate more timely monthly data from the production approach, real GDP confirmed the upward revision to 0.2% M/M for September that analysts had looked for vs the 0.1% in last month’s advance.
• However, the October advance of -0.3% M/M saw a disappointing start to Q4. There had been little to go beforehand but CIBC had eyed a 0.1% M/M increase.
• Revisions were particularly long-ranging, going back to 1997 and were generally upwards in recent years for the Y/Y.
• There’s not much to go from in the press release on this: “Each month, newly available administrative and survey data from various industries in the economy are integrated, resulting in statistical revisions. Updated and revised administrative data (including taxation statistics), new information provided by respondents to industry surveys, and standard changes to seasonal adjustment calculations are incorporated with each release.”
• The bottom line is that what had looked like a 0.5% Y/Y reading in September after last month’s advance is now 1.0% Y/Y, although today’s October advance suggests this slowed to 0.3% Y/Y for the lowest since early 2021.
• As for nearer-term tracking, the 3m/3m run rate is indicated at 1.1% annualized as of October vs the 1.9% in Q3 (initially 0.4) and -1.1% in Q2 (initially -0.7).