CANADA: Alberta Premier After Trump Meet-Don't Expect Exemptions From US Tariffs
Premier of the Canadian province of Alberta Danielle Smith has been talking to the media after a meeting between her and US President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Smith says Canada "should have prepared [for the likelihood] that tariffs are coming." Says Canada "will have to respond if there is a 25% tariff". Says she is "not expecting any exemptions from tariffs." Smith's comments come
- After the meeting, Smith said “We had a friendly and constructive conversation during which I emphasized the mutual importance of the U.S. – Canadian energy relationship, and specifically, how hundreds of thousands of American jobs are supported by energy exports from Alberta,” Speaking to CBC, Smith says that "An oil embargo would risk a national unity crisis".
- Foreign Minister Melanie Joly is expected in Washington, D.C., this week in an effort to dissuade Trump team officials from imposing tariffs. However, it remains to be seen how effective the overtures from Trudeau gov't ministers will be given the comments directed towards the outgoing PM from the incoming president in recent weeks.
- With a change in leadership coming in Ottawa in March, and the strong probability of a snap general election shortly after, officials from the main opposition Conservative Party of Canada (or regional parties supportive of the CPC like Smith's United Conservative Party) could end up as more effective interlocutors with the Trump administration given that opinion polls show the party as strong favourites to win a majority and the closer ideological stances between the CPC and Trump's Republican party.
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MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Inflation Data Keep Fed Cut On Track
We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Macro Weekly offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over the past week. Please find the full report here:
USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4393 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4327 2.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4296 2.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- PRICE: 1.4236 @ 16:38 GMT Dec 13
- SUP 1: 1.4069/3944 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend direction in USDCAD remains up and this week’s gains to a fresh cycle high, reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair has cleared 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to confirm resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4246 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4069, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Extending Late Session Lows, Curves Bear Steepen Ahead Next Wed's FOMC
- Treasuries traded steadily lower throughout Friday's session, initially mirroring weak action in Bunds and Gilts. By the close, the Mar'25 10Y contract slipped to 109-26 (-18) the lowest level since November 22, 10Y yield rising to 4.4046% high (+.0768).
- Initial technical support at 109-22 (76.4% Nov 15 - Dec 6 Upleg) followed by 109-20 (Low Nov 20/21).
- Curves bear steepened: 2s10s +2.272 at 15.568 as short end rates outperformed ahead of next week's FOMC policy announcement where another 25bp rate cut was expected but not certain amid current macro and political uncertainty. That said, the latest unemployment and inflation data have kept the FOMC on track to cut the federal funds rate by 25bp (to 4.25-4.50%) next Wednesday.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look near steady to lower vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Dec'24 cumulative -24.3bp (-23.7bp), Jan'25 -28.6bp (-29.6bp), Mar'25 -42.2bp (-43.9bp), May'25 -48.4bp (-50.5bp).
- No reaction to this morning's import/export prices, Monday brings flash S&P Global PMIs, Retail Sales, IP & Cap-U on Tuesday.
