BUNDS: A recovered towards the intraday high

• In FX, EURUSD has recovered from last week’s low. The trend set-up is bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that the pair has pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1607. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend.
• The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair continues to trade above support. The Aug 22 price pattern - a bullish engulfing candle - signals the end of a recent corrective phase. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support is 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
• A bear threat in USDJPY remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The short-term bear trigger lies at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started early August and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, 50% of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg.

OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover through SFRU7 on Friday, before a mix of net short setting and long cover came to the fore further out the strip, as SOFR futures twist steepened. Position setting outweighed cover in curve-wide terms.

• BTC (26th Dec) 140k/150k/160kc fly, bought for 490 in 200.
• BTC (27/03/26) 200k/220kcs, bought for 570 in 200 (over 200k next Year?).