ITALY T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 6-month BOT

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery that started on Apr 9 appears corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is $65.73, the 50-day EMA. Gold continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3219.4, the 20-day EMA.

• WTI Crude down $0.12 or -0.19% at $62.9
• Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.44% at $2.95
• Gold spot down $34.02 or -1.02% at $3286.43
• Copper down $2.35 or -0.48% at $487.1
• Silver down $0.15 or -0.44% at $32.9734
• Platinum up $6.86 or +0.7% at $983.66

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 5101.10. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. The corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract traded higher last week and breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5622.38, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 134.25 pts or +0.38% at 35839.99 and the TOPIX ended 22.58 pts higher or +0.86% at 2650.61.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 6.645 pts or -0.2% at 3288.415 and the HANG SENG ended 8.78 pts lower or -0.04% at 21971.96.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 90.52 pts or +0.41% at 22333.85, FTSE 100 higher by 30.81 pts or +0.37% at 8446.66, CAC 40 up 43.68 pts or +0.58% at 7579.94 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 24.1 pts or +0.47% at 5178.22.
• Dow Jones mini down 43 pts or -0.11% at 40210, S&P 500 mini down 13 pts or -0.23% at 5537, NASDAQ mini down 47 pts or -0.24% at 19488.75.

On Friday, Goldman Sachs recommended going long NOKSEK via 3-month 0.9450/0.9700 call spreads.

• “The Euro and its satellites have appreciated sharply versus the Dollar so far this year, and while we think that Euro strength is warranted, the pace of the moves has resulted in levels across European FX that look somewhat disjointed relative to our model-implied estimates”
• “The clearest dislocations have been in the Scandis, with SEK seeing pronounced outperformance during the March European fiscal re-rating episode, while NOK has underperformed notably since April 2nd”.
• “With the clearest risks to relative NOK strength likely coming from a further deterioration in risk sentiment—both through a deeper path for cuts for the Norges Bank, and through a further sell-off in oil prices—our preference is for NOK/SEK longs given the lower sensitivity to global risk”.