AUSSIE BONDS: 3yr ACGB Yield Above RBA Cash Rate, 10yr +8bps Post US Fed
Oct-29 22:57
Aussie bond futures are down sharply in early Thursday dealings, the 3yr off 5bps to 96.37. We challenged late Sep/early Oct lows in the first part of trade, getting to 96.335. The 10yr is off more to 95.68, off 8.5bps. This follows the sharp losses in US Tsy futures through Wednesday trade, as Fed Chair Powell cast doubt on a cut at the Dec Fed meeting. ACGB yield have surged form the open, +4-8bps across the benchmarks, with the back end leading.
- The 3yr is up close to 5bps, last at 3.61%, which is above the RBA policy rate. The 10yr is close to 4.30%, re-establishing itself back in a 4.20-4.40% range.
- Focus will be on whether the 3yr cash yield can sustain levels above the RBA cash rate. We may see buying interest emerge if the market still feels comfortable with easing risks into 2026, although near term momentum may remain strong. Only 4bps worth of RBA easing risk is priced by the market by year end.
- The AU 3/10s curve has steepened slightly, las near +69bps, up 3bps from recent lows. The AU-US 10yr spread us holding above +20bps at this stage.
- On the data front today we have Q3 trade prices.
Fig 1: Aussie 3yr Bond Yield & RBA Cash Rate
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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GOLD: Gold Reaches New High Opening Resistance At $3900
Sep-29 22:51
Gold rose strongly on Monday driven by safe-haven flows as the US debt ceiling impasse remained unresolved. Prices were up 2% to $3833.55/oz to be over 11% higher in September with a new record high of $3834.2 achieved, exceeding a number of resistance levels. It was also supported by a softer US dollar (BBDXY -0.2%) and slightly lower Treasury yields. Bullion is currently around $3828.7.
- Gold broke above resistance at $3818.5 and $3831.4 opening up round number support at $3900. Initial support is at $3717.6, 24 September low.
- The key data this week for the Fed outlook is Friday’s payrolls but a US shutdown could delay data releases. Also Fed comments remain important with members today showing differing opinions but also caution towards the degree of easing.
- Silver was also strong rising 1.8% to $46.93 to be over 18% higher this month. It reached a peak of $47.18, just below initial resistance at $47.251. The metal is currently around $46.75. Tightness in the physical market as well as ETF flows have boosted silver prices, according to Bloomberg.
- Equities were moderately higher with the S&P up 0.3% and Euro Stoxx +0.1%. The S&P e-mini is slightly lower so far today. Oil prices fell sharply with Brent -3.5% to $67.65/bbl. Copper rose 2.8%.
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
Sep-29 22:45
- South Korea to Sell KRW4.4tn 30-Year Bonds
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$68.384 Billion 90-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$20 Billion 181-Day Bills
- Bank of Thailand to Sell THB65bn of 96-Days Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 92D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 182D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
- MAS to Sell S$1.8 Billion 252-Day Bills on Sept. 30
- MAS to Sell S$22.2 Billion 85-Day Bills on Sept. 30
- MAS to Sell S$14.6 Billion 28-Day Bills on Sept. 30
- Indonesia To Sell 2029 Sukuk Bonds (PBSG001)
- Indonesia To Sell 2028 Sukuk Bonds (PBS030)
- Indonesia To Sell 2027 Sukuk Bonds (PBS003)
- Indonesia To Sell 2049 Sukuk Bonds (PBS038)
- Indonesia To Sell 2039 Sukuk Bonds (PBS034)
- Indonesia To Sell 242D Sukuk Bills (SPNS01062026)
- Indonesia To Sell 158D Sukuk Bills (SPNS09032026)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
Sep-29 22:45
| 0000GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Industrial Production YoY AUGUST |
| 0000GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Industrial Production SA MoM AUGUST |
| 0000GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Cyclical Leading Index Change AUGUST |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Exports YoY AUGUST |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Exports AUGUST |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Imports YoY AUGUST |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Imports AUGUST |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Trade Balance AUGUST |
| 0230GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Manufacturing PMI SEPTEMBER |
| 0230GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Non-manufacturing PMI SEPTEMBER |
| 0230GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Composite PMI SEPTEMBER |
| 0245GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | RatingDog China PMI Composite SEPTEMBER |
| 0245GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | RatingDog China PMI Services SEPTEMBER |
| 0245GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | RatingDog China PMI Mfg SEPTEMBER |
| 2300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | Singapore Money Supply M1 YoY AUGUST |
| 2300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | Singapore Money Supply M2 YoY AUGUST |
| 2300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | Deposits and Balances of Residents Outside Singapore AUGUST |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA YoY AUGUST |
| 0330GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Capacity Utilization ISIC AUGUST |
| 0330GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand BoP Current Account Balance AUGUST |
| 0330GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Exports YoY AUGUST |
| 0530GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Exports AUGUST |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Imports YoY AUGUST |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEST | Thailand Imports AUGUST |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEST | Thailand Trade Balance AUGUST |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEST | Thailand BoP Overall Balance AUGUST |
| 0330GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEST | Hong Kong Money Supply M1 HKD YoY AUGUST |
| 0330GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEST | Hong Kong Money Supply M2 HKD YoY AUGUST |
| 0330GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEST | Hong Kong Money Supply M3 HKD YoY AUGUST |
| 0530GMT | 1830HKT | 2030AEST | India Fiscal Deficit YTD INR AUGUST |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
